Juno

Two matches, two home sides with a clear weakness on the other side. At the Bombonera, Boca face a Talleres team that has barely created a chance lately, and Boca concede very little at home. In Chiba, the bottom side's real problem is not starting games but finishing them, and they meet a rested Marinos first eleven. In both games the stronger structure belongs to one side, even if neither is a walkover.

This Tokyo derby has a clear pattern on one side. Every time Verdy have met an upper-half team this league season they have lost by exactly two goals, and the latest of those came under their new coach, Naoki Soma. FC Tokyo tend to stay level early and build their wins after the hour. The question is whether Verdy's fresh start changes that pattern or just delays it.

Two matches where the shape of the game is settled before the ball rolls. In Vienna, Rapid control games at home and Hartberg give up territory away from home, so the question is how big the gap gets, not who has the ball. In Frankfurt, two defences that let opponents shoot week after week meet, and both coaches have promised to go forward. Neither game looks like it can stay tidy for ninety minutes.

This is a meeting of two defences that give up chances in the way the other side likes to attack. Lyon at home have created plenty in every recorded game, and their goals come from all over the pitch. Crystal Palace under Sage press high and have conceded heavy chance volumes in most of their recent games. Each side also has a route that does not depend on the other making mistakes.

Both of these MLS matches have the same shape: a home side whose attack creates at will meets a visitor whose one reliable route is exactly the way that home side keeps conceding. In Miami, NYC's stripped midfield faces a central trio that has scored in twenty straight games, while Miami's back line keeps getting beaten by single balls in behind. In St. Louis, a front-foot home attack meets a reshuffled Vancouver defence, and Vancouver's set pieces meet a side that has conceded in every recent home game. Neither match looks like one that a single goal settles.

This match is closer than the headlines make it look. Feyenoord's long absence list mostly hits the bench, not the side that starts. Their best weapon, a high press at home, goes straight at the phase where Como have struggled this season. Como have the better squad and the better finishers on paper, but without Kean their chances have not always become goals.

Spain won the first game of this window, but the scoreline hid how the match actually went. Both Spain goals came inside the opening quarter-hour from quick transitions, and after that the United States had most of the chances while Spain went the whole second half without a shot. For the rematch Spain's attacking options shrink further, while the American side looks the same as it did a few days ago. This is a game of transitions in both directions, not a closed or one-sided one.

This is an open match in which both sides have a real way to score, but the two injury lists do not cancel each other out. Lens have lost defensive organisation at the back. Sporting have lost a midfield carrier, and that pushes their attack toward the very channel Lens have been leaking through. The outcome turns on whether Lens's patched back three can handle crosses and box movement for ninety minutes.

Two matches where the results so far tell a louder story than the chances behind them. Eibar sit top of the Segunda while being out-shot almost everywhere, and Oviedo are a wall at home but are now missing most of their forward line. Newcastle's games have been goal-fests built on finishing far above their chances, and they now meet a Coventry side that defends deep and has no senior striker.

Galaxy's good September looks stronger in the table than it was on the pitch. Their points came against mid-table sides, and they were often out-created in those games. Away at the strongest teams in the West they have been beaten by two goals while creating very little. St. Louis at home are a different level of opponent from the teams Galaxy have been beating.

This top-of-the-table meeting in Herning is not the same Midtjylland that built the unbeaten run. Every defender who played their last league match is unavailable, and so is the goalkeeper. The back line that kept them solid also scored a big share of their goals from set pieces. Copenhagen arrive with a squad that has several ways to score, and the match is shaped by how those routes meet a rebuilt defence.

Both of these matches pit a side that wants the ball against a side whose best football comes from taking it away and running. In each case the team in possession creates plenty, but the way it loses the ball is exactly how the opponent likes to score. Neither match looks like one team controlling the other. They look like two-way games where the chances keep coming at both ends.

This Napoli side under Allegri has not been pulling away from mid-table teams, and the home crowd should expect an open game rather than a controlled one. Frosinone come with a direct, low-possession style that still produces a lot of shots, and their chances arrive early and on the break. Napoli also arrive with a rebuilt back line and a midfield missing its ball-winner. The match looks less one-sided than the names suggest.

This match comes down to the air. Derby give up a lot of chances at Pride Park and now face a side whose main way of scoring is high balls and dead balls, with a back line that has lost the defender who won those duels. Wrexham create little in open play away from home, so it depends on whether they win enough territory and set pieces. The first set-piece goal should decide how the rest of the match goes.

Mexico are priced on their name, not on what they're producing right now. Without Quiñones and Jiménez, the two strikers who scored seven of their ten World Cup goals, Rafa Márquez's side has been keeping the ball and doing very little with it. Chile have been losing, but they create more than their results suggest. I don't see Mexico pulling away in this one.

The USMNT's window looks better on the scoreboard than it did on the pitch, and that's what this match turns on. The market has swung hard toward the hosts after Canada's injury news, on top of three straight US wins. But two of those wins came with help, and Canada's press runs through players who are all still available. Jesse Marsch's side should be able to make this a real contest.

Both of these are quick Nations League rematches, so I went back to what actually happened in the first games rather than the scorelines. Each first meeting ended 0-0, but in very different ways. In Slovenia, Scotland ran the game and just couldn't finish. In Finland, almost nothing happened at either end. The conditions behind both pictures are still in place for the return fixtures.

China's defence has fallen apart in front of their own fans, and Tajikistan are a side that can make them pay. Back-to-back home defeats, eight goals conceded, none scored and a coach openly questioning his players' focus don't fix themselves in four days. Tajikistan come in fresher, already settled in Chongqing, with an attack that keeps finding the net. That mix is why I'm with the visitors here.

Korea keep the ball against compact teams but struggle to turn it into real chances, and Uzbekistan are exactly that kind of team. Cannavaro's side don't need possession to hurt you, and they arrive in their best spell under him. Korea are on an interim coach with a mixed record and a rotated squad at the end of the international window. That's why I side with Uzbekistan in this one.

Honduras already beat Jamaica in Kingston a week ago, and this time they're at home, where they're very hard to beat. Jamaica, on the other hand, show up short-handed: injured players have been sent back to their clubs and Bailey Cadamarteri is suspended. Honduras need a win to stay in the race, and they're playing a Jamaica side that their own coach calls depleted.