Two matches where the results so far tell a louder story than the chances behind them. Eibar sit top of the Segunda while being out-shot almost everywhere, and Oviedo are a wall at home but are now missing most of their forward line. Newcastle's games have been goal-fests built on finishing far above their chances, and they now meet a Coventry side that defends deep and has no senior striker.
Oviedo against Eibar first. Eibar win without the ball: around 42% possession, out-shot 22 to 8 at Albacete and 24 to 8 at Eldense, yet they keep winning because they break fast, finish a few clean chances and have Magunagoitia behind them. Oviedo are two different teams. At home they have scored two and conceded one in four league games, with two goalless draws, and their only home win came against ten-man Gijon.
The key change is up front for Oviedo. Ramos went off injured in late September, and Chaira, Isfan, Fernandez and Pedrola all missed the trip to Eldense, where Oviedo scored only once from open play. Without a proper number nine they will have to carry the ball against a block that is happy to concede it, and their main way through becomes crosses and set pieces from centre-backs Dominguez and Calvo. Eibar's wide runners against Oviedo's full-backs is where this match is decided.
I expect a cagey first hour, Oviedo holding modest possession and Eibar waiting for one or two breaks. That shape suits the side that does not need territory, and a draw is the natural floor of Oviedo's home pattern. That's why I'm siding with Eibar not to lose.
Coventry against Newcastle second. Newcastle have scored nine league goals from roughly a third of that in chances, and when Bournemouth sat in a set block they created very little. Coventry have created about one expected goal a game and scored once all season; with Wright out all season and Awoniyi serving the last game of his ban, the group that made only a modest threat at Forest is the one that starts again.
The matchups are clear. Coventry go long from Rushworth to a running wing-back behind Newcastle's patched right side, which is their best one-goal route. Newcastle's best route is a turnover in Coventry's build-up, as when they scored twice early against Hull. Neither side has shown it can turn that into a flood: after Hull scored late, Coventry's chase produced nothing, and their heavy defeat to Brighton came with ten men.
The likely flow is Newcastle with the ball against a deep Coventry five, few clean chances, and goals needing a mistake or a set piece. A one- or two-goal game, or a narrow three, fits what both sides have actually been creating. That's why I'm on the lower-scoring side in this one.
