Both of these MLS matches have the same shape: a home side whose attack creates at will meets a visitor whose one reliable route is exactly the way that home side keeps conceding. In Miami, NYC's stripped midfield faces a central trio that has scored in twenty straight games, while Miami's back line keeps getting beaten by single balls in behind. In St. Louis, a front-foot home attack meets a reshuffled Vancouver defence, and Vancouver's set pieces meet a side that has conceded in every recent home game. Neither match looks like one that a single goal settles.
Inter Miami under Kily Gonzalez win through the middle, with De Paul feeding Messi and Suarez between the lines. At home they have scored freely, and every one of their last ten matches had at least two goals. NYC arrive without Parks, Trewin and Moralez, so O'Neill and Perea have no cover and no rotation in central midfield. Perea also has to be the main forward passer, so that pivot is overloaded in both directions.
The other half of the picture is how Miami concede. San Diego scored twice with straight balls behind the line, and Miami have let late equalisers in during three home games in a row. NYC's working route is Perea's early ball into the channels for Ojeda and Wolf, which is the same mechanism. Casemiro moving to centre-back brought a clean sheet against DC, but DC had no strikers that day, so it has not yet been tested by runners. Both teams also leak late, so the last twenty minutes are open at both ends.
In St. Louis, Damet's side attacks directly through Holse and Navarro and creates a lot at home, so one side alone has regularly pushed games past three goals. What they give up is volume: lots of shots and corners against them, plus goals early, from penalties, and late once they are ahead. Vancouver are without Müller, Adekugbe and the suspended Blackmon, so their open play is thinner and the centre-back pair is makeshift against the strongest runners they have faced recently.
Vancouver's goals do not depend on Müller, though. Corners and headers from Laborda, White and Priso, long shots from Larraz, and Sabbi pouncing on build-up errors all fit how St. Louis concede. Cubas is back in midfield after playing the full match last time out. If St. Louis score first, Vancouver have to chase the top seed on tired legs, which gives St. Louis the transitions that brought them three goals in quick succession in September.
In both matches the visitors' route meets the home side's weakness, and the home attack meets a weakened unit. That's why I'm siding with goals in both matches, Inter Miami against New York City and St. Louis City against Vancouver.
