This is a meeting of two defences that give up chances in the way the other side likes to attack. Lyon at home have created plenty in every recorded game, and their goals come from all over the pitch. Crystal Palace under Sage press high and have conceded heavy chance volumes in most of their recent games. Each side also has a route that does not depend on the other making mistakes.
Lyon's home attack is the anchor. Their expected goals at home ranged from 1.75 to 3.13, with goals from wingers, an overlapping full-back and arriving midfielders. That matters because Openda is out: losing him takes away a runner, not the source of Lyon's home output. Palace, meanwhile, conceded close to three expected goals and 24 shots against Nottingham, and gave up big totals to Ipswich and Lech as well.
The key duel is Lyon's wide runners, Nuamah with Athekame overlapping, against Palace's wing-backs. Nottingham found the far side again and again, and a weak back-header from Khalaili gifted them a goal. In the other direction, Palace's press with Wharton, Kamada and the midfield runners goes up against a Lyon midfield that admitted to playing too high at Lens. Ball wins high up feed Pino and Strand Larsen in transition.
Absences shape the back lines more than the attacks. Lyon are without Tagliafico and probably Niakhate, their most experienced aerial centre-back, which leaves Wharton's corners with Richards and Disasi attacking them a real route. Palace's missing names are non-registered players and long-term injuries, and Sage confirmed everyone else is available and that he will not rotate, so their press and their set-piece delivery arrive intact.
The opening twenty minutes should be loose, with Palace pressing and Lyon trying to play through them. Lyon have often been two goals up at half-time at home, and Palace leak first-half volume. Whoever scores first, the game stays open. If Lyon lead, Palace keep pressing and leave space behind them. If Palace lead, Lyon have to push numbers forward without Openda and open themselves to Pino's breaks.
The quieter reading comes from Lyon's away games and one Palace league draw at Leeds, which is neither this ground nor this kind of opponent. Both teams have seen three or more goals in six of their last ten. That's why I'm siding with goals in this match: an open game where both attacks find the way the other defence concedes.
