Both of these matches pit a side that wants the ball against a side whose best football comes from taking it away and running. In each case the team in possession creates plenty, but the way it loses the ball is exactly how the opponent likes to score. Neither match looks like one team controlling the other. They look like two-way games where the chances keep coming at both ends.
Como against Roma first. Under Fabregas, Como keep around 62% of the ball and take about 20 shots a game, mostly through Nico Paz, the wide players and crosses. Their weak spot is a man-to-man press on their midfield pivot. Frosinone beat them that way after the last break, and their second goal was a counter after a Como corner. Even so, Como still created about two expected goals that day, so the press traded chances with them rather than shutting them out.
Roma under Gasperini are built to press like that. They man-mark all over the pitch, win the ball high and score quickly through Kone's late runs, Dybala and Malen. But that press also leaves gaps. The one quality possession side they've faced, Inter, scored twice against them, once straight after Mancini lost the ball high up the pitch.
The absences push the same way. Kean is out, so Douvikas leads the line for Como as an aerial target for crosses. Svilar is out for Roma, so a reserve goalkeeper faces Como's shot volume. Cristante's absence also thins Roma's midfield.
Southampton against Portsmouth follows a similar pattern. Southampton have won all four home league games and scored in every one, with Larin, Azaz and Scienza doing the finishing. Yet they conceded in all four, and visiting sides got 10 to 21 shots each time. Their full-backs push high, and teams that sit back and break have found the space behind them.
That suits Portsmouth. Their best displays this season came with little of the ball, like the win over Cardiff with about a third of possession. The forwards on their absence list weren't starting anyway, so their main route is intact: Kavuma-McQueen and Kamara running at the full-backs. At the other end, Portsmouth have kept only two clean sheets in seven and have shipped big chances to QPR and Lincoln.
In both matches I expect the favourite to have more of the ball and the underdog to get its moments on the break. That's why I'm backing both sides to score in each of these two matches.
