Mexico are priced on their name, not on what they're producing right now. Without Quiñones and Jiménez, the two strikers who scored seven of their ten World Cup goals, Rafa Márquez's side has been keeping the ball and doing very little with it. Chile have been losing, but they create more than their results suggest. I don't see Mexico pulling away in this one.
The numbers from Márquez's first three games are thin: two goals in three matches. Against Peru, Mexico had 64% of the ball but only nine shots and three on target, and drew 1-1 at home despite going in as heavy favourites. Against the USA they managed six shots and one on target in a 3-0 defeat. They hardly win corners either, about two a game, so set pieces aren't bailing them out.
Peru is a useful yardstick. In this same window the USA beat Peru 4-1 and Chile 4-2, and Canada beat Peru 2-0 and Chile 1-0. Chile were down to ten men from the 35th minute in Canada. These are two sides at a similar level, and Mexico couldn't beat Peru.
Chile also showed they can create. Even in the 4-2 loss to the USA they had 17 shots, eight on target and 13 corners. Their captain Gabriel Suazo is back, and so is Lucas Cepeda after his red card in Canada.
Timing helps them too. Chile have had a full week off, while Mexico come in three days after a bruising rivalry loss. Mexico are still rotating heavily under a new coach and are without Mateo Chávez (suspended) and the injured Hirving Lozano and Gilberto Mora.
