This top-of-the-table meeting in Herning is not the same Midtjylland that built the unbeaten run. Every defender who played their last league match is unavailable, and so is the goalkeeper. The back line that kept them solid also scored a big share of their goals from set pieces. Copenhagen arrive with a squad that has several ways to score, and the match is shaped by how those routes meet a rebuilt defence.
Midtjylland win at home by going direct. Etim wins headers, scored in each of the last two league games, and the second balls feed Iheanacho. Their centre-backs added the rest: Kristensen, M. Jensen and Erlic scored three of the club's last eight goals between them. Copenhagen score from everywhere: high regains and quick breaks (5-0 at Odense with little of the ball), crosses from Meling and Beijmo, and a bench that keeps finding goals after the 75th minute through Cornelius, Nasnas, Carrizo and Maseko.
The key matchup is on the flanks. Kristensen is suspended and Bak Jensen is injured, so Midtjylland have no natural full-back left. The expected wing-backs are midfielders, and the coach has already said Martinez cannot be counted on for the full game. Behind them sits a back three of Diao, back for his first competitive start since July, Bech, back after a month out, and the new signing Maxsø, with no minutes together. Bakker replaces Olafsson in goal.
All of these absences are fresh. Each of those players featured at Odense and the squad list confirmed them out this weekend. It also matters in the other direction: Midtjylland's set-piece threat through their centre-backs leaves with them.
I expect a cautious first half, with Midtjylland compact and looking long for Etim. The match should open up after the hour, when the returning players tire and Copenhagen's bench comes on. If Copenhagen lead, Midtjylland's wing-backs have to push up and the breaks get space. If Midtjylland score first, Copenhagen have shown they can chase with crosses and late substitutes, as Nordsjaelland did with a late second-half push in Herning.
The home side's direct route to Etim is real, and Copenhagen were shut down at Viborg, so I want protection if this ends level. That's why I'm siding with Copenhagen away from home, with the draw covered.
