Galaxy's good September looks stronger in the table than it was on the pitch. Their points came against mid-table sides, and they were often out-created in those games. Away at the strongest teams in the West they have been beaten by two goals while creating very little. St. Louis at home are a different level of opponent from the teams Galaxy have been beating.
St. Louis win in three ways: a man-to-man press out of a back three, set-piece headers near the post, and fresh forwards off the bench who finish games. Five of their last six matches ended in a win by two or more. Twice in that run they conceded inside the opening minutes, at Vancouver and against Minnesota, and still won comfortably.
The key matchup is that press against Galaxy's build-out. Galaxy's own coach said in the build-up that they have to be calm and clean on the ball because St. Louis press man to man. That is exactly where Galaxy give chances away, and their centre-backs have also been beaten one against one. At New England they were out-shot by a wide margin and still won. Against Colorado they came from two down helped by an own goal and a bad day for the opposing keeper.
The absences lean the same way. Lozano, the wide creator who scored at San Diego and set up the goal at New England, is out with a hamstring injury. Klauss is reported available after a knock, but it is not clear he starts. St. Louis have their core spine from the win in New York intact.
Galaxy do have a real route. Reus is in form and can drop deep to pull man markers out of shape, so a Galaxy goal would not surprise me. But their late comebacks have come against mid-table defences, not away at a side like this. I expect St. Louis to lead early through the press or a set piece and to stretch the margin late as Galaxy open up to chase. The July meeting went the same way, a two-goal St. Louis win at Galaxy's ground.
That's why I'm siding with St. Louis to win this one by two goals or more.
