Two matches where the shape of the game is settled before the ball rolls. In Vienna, Rapid control games at home and Hartberg give up territory away from home, so the question is how big the gap gets, not who has the ball. In Frankfurt, two defences that let opponents shoot week after week meet, and both coaches have promised to go forward. Neither game looks like it can stay tidy for ninety minutes.
Rapid under Thorup win by keeping the ball. In their home league games with stats they created between 2.4 and 5 expected goals and allowed less than one, and three of their four home wins came by two or more. Their late goals keep arriving from the bench, with Dahl, Wurmbrand and Mbuyi all scoring in the final ten minutes this season, and with no midweek game Thorup has everyone to call on.
Hartberg under Schopp sit at around a third of the ball away from home and face heavy volume: 16 shots at Tirol, 18 at Altach, 36 at Salzburg, where they made almost nothing going forward. They now build more riskily from the back, and Thorup has said openly that he wants to press it. Losing Wilfinger, a starter in every game until his knee injury, weakens the back line; they conceded three at home in the one league game since.
Hartberg's best hope is an early goal from a quick break, which is how their away goals have come. But Rapid have allowed one goal at home all season, and once Rapid lead, Hartberg have to come out, which plays into Rapid's bench. That's why I'm siding with Rapid to win clearly.
In Frankfurt, Eintracht have given up 17 to 22 shots in four of their five league games, mostly to mid-table sides, and every one of those games had at least four goals. Their own attack has produced real chances every week, with Ebnoutalib, Burkardt and Uzun all scoring. Hutter's answer to the heavy defeat at Leipzig is to press from the first minute, and that keeps a game open rather than closing it.
Koln arrive without a recognised striker, but their chances have never mainly come from the 9. Five of their eight goals came from wingers and midfield runners like El Mala, Maina and Bulter, and those players are all available. At the back, Koln lose Skhiri as the screen and two centre-backs, which hands Frankfurt's front two room in the box.
Frankfurt have also struggled to protect leads, letting them slip against Augsburg, Union and Freiburg. Goals at both ends and a lead that does not hold is how I see this game going. That's why I'm on goals in Frankfurt.
