This Tokyo derby has a clear pattern on one side. Every time Verdy have met an upper-half team this league season they have lost by exactly two goals, and the latest of those came under their new coach, Naoki Soma. FC Tokyo tend to stay level early and build their wins after the hour. The question is whether Verdy's fresh start changes that pattern or just delays it.
The numbers behind it: Verdy lost 1-3 to Kashiwa, 0-2 to Kashima, 0-2 to Kobe, 1-3 at Urawa and 0-2 to Hiroshima, four of those at this stadium. They have not scored twice in any of their nine league games, and they have not kept a home clean sheet in six. FC Tokyo have won five of their six league games by two or more goals and have conceded only three times in eight league games since August.
The key matchup is Kento Nagakura carrying the ball through the middle against Verdy's midfield pair. Against Urawa his carries produced the first goal and set up the other two, all from the 63rd minute on. In Soma's debut against Hiroshima, Verdy were the better side in the first half but let substitutes find space between the lines early in the second, and conceded at 47 and 58 minutes. Verdy's best outlet is down their left, crossing for Someno or Kim Hyun-woo against a Tokyo right side missing captain Muroya.
Rotation should not be an issue for Tokyo. Their midweek cup side was heavily changed, with Nagakura, Anzai and Marcelo Ryan playing only around half an hour and several regulars not playing at all, so most of the side that beat Urawa comes in rested. Their next game is a home league match, so there is no reason to hold players back for this one.
I expect a tight first half, with Verdy compact and emotional and Tokyo patient on the ball, as they were when level at the break in five of nine league games. The game should open once Tokyo score. Verdy then have to come out, and that is where Tokyo's transitions and fresh bench legs have been doing the damage.
That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo to win this derby by a clear margin.
