Spain won the first game of this window, but the scoreline hid how the match actually went. Both Spain goals came inside the opening quarter-hour from quick transitions, and after that the United States had most of the chances while Spain went the whole second half without a shot. For the rematch Spain's attacking options shrink further, while the American side looks the same as it did a few days ago. This is a game of transitions in both directions, not a closed or one-sided one.
The anchor is the first meeting in Washington. Spain struck early twice: a central regain that ended with Guijarro shooting from the edge of the box, then a fast break from Imade to Paralluelo on the left and across to Navarro at the far post. From then on the USA pushed Spain back, finishing with roughly double the shots and around ten on target against three. Wilson had a goal ruled out for offside and Nanclares saved a penalty. The USA's route was pace in behind a Spain line that holds high.
The key matchup is again the American wide runners, Rodman, Wilson and Thompson, with Swanson projected to start, against Spain's back line. Irene Paredes is reported available to lead it, but Mapi Leon has been sent home, and Paredes brings organisation rather than recovery speed. At the other end, the USA midfield without Sam Coffey has to stop the turnovers that fed Spain's opener, and Paralluelo against the American right back is the route Spain will look for again.
The absences are what tilt it. Spain lose Del Castillo to suspension after her late red card, and Claudia Pina has been sent home, on top of Bonmati, Caldentey and Vicky Lopez not being available. That leaves Spain with fewer ways to break down a set defence and even more reliant on transitions. Girma and Coffey were already missing for the USA in the first game, so the American structure we saw then is the one we should see again, at home and in their last game before a tournament.
The opening twenty minutes decide the shape. Emma Hayes wants her side to start earlier and press higher. If Spain beat that first press they can hurt the USA again, but if the hosts get in front, Spain have to come out and leave even more space behind. With both benches emptying after the hour, the late stages should open up rather than close down.
The price still follows Spain's ranking and the first result, while the chance balance and the changes since then point the other way. That's why I'm siding with the United States in this match, with the stake returned if it ends level.
