This match is closer than the headlines make it look. Feyenoord's long absence list mostly hits the bench, not the side that starts. Their best weapon, a high press at home, goes straight at the phase where Como have struggled this season. Como have the better squad and the better finishers on paper, but without Kean their chances have not always become goals.
Feyenoord under Van Bronckhorst press high and attack fast. Their midfield three and Ferri up front win the ball back high, then Read and Hadj Moussa go at the flanks. Against AZ, the Eredivisie leader, they had less than half the ball but won the chances clearly and the game 2-0. The first goal came from pressure on a clearance, the second from a corner. The heavy defeat in Barcelona came against an elite possession side away from home, which is a different level from this one.
Como under Fabregas want the ball and usually get it. Paz, Baturina and Diao create from the half-spaces. Their weak spot is building out against teams that press man to man. At Frosinone they had most of the ball but lost 0-2, with both goals before the break. Roma's marking held them to almost nothing in the first half. Without Kean, a draw with ten-man Roma ended goalless despite plenty of chances.
The key matchup is Ferri, Targhalline and Vanhoutte pressing Como's build-up through Ramon, Chalobah and the holding midfielders. At the other end, Paz and Baturina will look for the space behind Feyenoord's high line, the space Barcelona used. Read and Hadj Moussa against Como's left side, and Ferri's finishing, decide how much Feyenoord get out of their press.
The absences matter less than the count suggests. Smal, Bos, Nieuwkoop, Beelen, Nelson, Van Persie and Moder all missed the win over AZ, so the likely XI is that same side, with Watanabe back at centre-back after the coach confirmed him fit. What Feyenoord lose is depth: few attacking changes late on and no natural cover at left-back. For Como, the real change is Douvikas leading the line instead of Kean.
The first half hour is Feyenoord's window, with a turnover or a set piece the likeliest route. If Como play through that first wave, the game opens up at both ends. After the hour Feyenoord's press faded against AZ, so a lead would mean defending deeper against Como's possession.
The press against Como's build-up is the matchup that shapes this game, and Feyenoord's starting side is close to the one that just beat the league leader. That's why I'm siding with Feyenoord at home.
