Korea keep the ball against compact teams but struggle to turn it into real chances, and Uzbekistan are exactly that kind of team. Cannavaro's side don't need possession to hurt you, and they arrive in their best spell under him. Korea are on an interim coach with a mixed record and a rotated squad at the end of the international window. That's why I side with Uzbekistan in this one.
Look at Korea's recent games against organised, non-elite opponents. Against Venezuela they had 51% of the ball and managed 7 shots to Venezuela's 12, and it finished 0-0. At the World Cup against South Africa they had 68% possession and still lost 1-0, with an xG of 0.90 to 1.16. Mexico held them to 9 shots and 2 on target. This happened under both Hong Myung-bo and now Robert Moreno, so it's a pattern rather than one bad night.
Uzbekistan play low and fast. They scored seven across their last two games, 3-1 against Iran and 4-1 against Syria. Eldor Shomurodov scored in the 10th minute against both Iran and DR Congo, and Abdukodir Khusanov anchors the back four. They don't need to control this game; one well-taken chance against a Korea attack that scored once in its last two home games changes everything.
The timing matters too. Moreno is on a short interim deal and has won one, drawn one and lost one so far, while both squads have been rotated heavily in this window. Korea's long unbeaten run against Uzbekistan and the home crowd in Daejeon carry a lot of weight in how people see this game, but those meetings came under different coaches and different teams.
