Two matches, two home sides with a clear weakness on the other side. At the Bombonera, Boca face a Talleres team that has barely created a chance lately, and Boca concede very little at home. In Chiba, the bottom side's real problem is not starting games but finishing them, and they meet a rested Marinos first eleven. In both games the stronger structure belongs to one side, even if neither is a walkover.
Boca vs Talleres: Boca are unbeaten in league play at home this tournament, with four wins and a draw and only two goals conceded in five. Even Brazilian cup opponents found almost nothing at the Bombonera. Talleres under De Felippe press early and keep the ball for spells, but their last two games produced very little in front of goal and no goals while striker Alvarez Martinez was suspended. Away from home they have won once in five.
The matchup to watch is Boca's full-backs, Gorosito and Blanco, against Talleres' wide runners Rick and Depietri. That flank is both Boca's main chance route and Talleres' only clear counter lane. Alvarez is back, and he is the one player who changes Talleres' scoring, but against a defence that gives up so little his route is one chance on a break or a set piece. Boca are missing Villa, Velasco and Paredes, so their width comes from the full-backs, with Merentiel and Flores in the box. Flores scored twice off the bench against Union. If Boca score first, Talleres have to open up, and that gives Boca the space for a second. That's why I'm with Boca to win this clearly.
Chiba vs Marinos: Chiba are bottom with one league win in nine. They start well at home, pressing high and threatening from set pieces, with an early free kick against Nagasaki and a first-minute goal against Gamba. Their repeated failure is the last twenty minutes: late goals conceded against Nagasaki and Okayama at home, and at Verdy and Shimizu away. They also lose Erison, who went off on a stretcher in their last game, and probably Indio, their two open-play goal sources.
Marinos' midweek cup side was the rotated one, so the league starters return on about a week's rest. Their wingers Kondo and Miyaichi go one-on-one against Chiba's full-backs, the same flanks where Chiba gave up those late crosses. I expect Chiba to push early and Marinos' fresher, better wide players to take over after the break, exactly when Chiba have been leaking goals. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama F. Marinos not to lose this one.
