This is an open match in which both sides have a real way to score, but the two injury lists do not cancel each other out. Lens have lost defensive organisation at the back. Sporting have lost a midfield carrier, and that pushes their attack toward the very channel Lens have been leaking through. The outcome turns on whether Lens's patched back three can handle crosses and box movement for ninety minutes.
Under Yannick Cahuzac, Lens play a 3-4-2-1 that wins through volume and the right side. Thauvin feeds Aguilar's overlaps, and his dead balls are a steady source of goals: he set up Udol's free-kick header against Lyon and Udol's goal at Monaco. Lens take plenty of shots and corners at home. The cost shows at the back. Over their last ten they have given up a lot of quality, with Le Mans, Slavia and Monaco all creating big chances against them, and Lyon's goal came from a cross that was cleared badly.
Sporting under Rui Borges keep more of the ball, concede very little quality and have scored in every match for a long run. Their goals come from wide delivery to Suarez, penalties he wins and takes, and Zalazar carrying the ball through midfield. The goals they have conceded recently were odd ones: own goals, a deflected long shot and a penalty, not crosses beating their line.
The key matchup is Suarez and Sporting's wide players against a Lens back three without Gradit, who went off injured against Lyon, and Nawrocki. Todibo's status is unclear, and Baidoo is set for his first start of the season. On the other flank, Thauvin and Aguilar will attack Sporting's left, where Nuno Santos is missing. That is Lens's best route.
Sporting losing Zalazar matters, but in a particular way. Without their central carrier they are expected to line up in a more classical shape, with Suarez up top and more crosses from wide. That takes them straight at the weakest part of this Lens side. Lens's home habit of pushing the wing-backs high also leaves space behind them for Sporting's wingers.
I expect Lens to have the energy and the crowd early, with their first halves at home being their best spells. Sporting's away first halves have been quiet, and their output tends to come after the hour, when Borges brings on pace from the bench against tiring legs. Lens have also conceded late against Lyon and Monaco.
For Lens to win this, Thauvin's delivery has to outscore a side that keeps finding a goal, behind a back line that is missing two or three centre-backs. Sporting's route runs straight into Lens's weak spot, while Lens's route runs into a defence that rarely gives up clean chances. That's why I'm siding with Sporting.
