This Napoli side under Allegri has not been pulling away from mid-table teams, and the home crowd should expect an open game rather than a controlled one. Frosinone come with a direct, low-possession style that still produces a lot of shots, and their chances arrive early and on the break. Napoli also arrive with a rebuilt back line and a midfield missing its ball-winner. The match looks less one-sided than the names suggest.
Start with what Napoli have actually produced. Against Genoa, Como, Bologna and Fiorentina their expected goals stayed between roughly 0.8 and 1.4. They lost at home to Como, have scored only twice in two home league games, and were outshot by both Como and Fiorentina. When they have the ball they create slowly, and when they lose it they give up a lot of shots.
Frosinone are the opposite shape. They had 22 shots against Como and 26 shots with nine corners away at Genoa, both close to two expected goals, and those came against sides of a similar level, not weak ones. Schmid is the creator: he set up three of the four goals in the games I looked at, feeding Kvernadze and Ghedjemis in transition.
The key matchup is those breaks against Napoli's midfield screen. Anguissa is still recovering, and the expected pairing is De Bruyne beside Lobotka with Gilmour rested on the bench ahead of the Villarreal trip. That is a creative pair, but not one built for recovery running, so Frosinone's counters should reach the back line.
And that back line is new. Buongiorno and Olivera are both out, Badiashile is tipped for his first start, Spinazzola has only just returned, and even the shape (back three or back four) was undecided late in the week. Frosinone average six corners a game, and Napoli have conceded plenty of them recently.
Frosinone have their own gaps, without their main striker Raimondo and the deep midfielder Grillitsch, and they concede big shot volumes. But Como took 27 shots against them and did not score, and Napoli usually take about twelve a game. De Bruyne starting raises Napoli's ceiling, and Allegri fielded a near-full side before the last European game, so this is not a rotation story.
The flow I expect: Napoli hold the ball and start slowly, as they did at Genoa and against Bologna, while Frosinone look for an early break or a corner. If it is level after an hour, Napoli have to push, which opens more space for the counter. One Frosinone goal keeps this match alive to the end.
That's why I'm siding with Frosinone to avoid defeat in Naples.
