This match comes down to the air. Derby give up a lot of chances at Pride Park and now face a side whose main way of scoring is high balls and dead balls, with a back line that has lost the defender who won those duels. Wrexham create little in open play away from home, so it depends on whether they win enough territory and set pieces. The first set-piece goal should decide how the rest of the match goes.
Derby have one point from four home games. In their last two home matches with stats they allowed big chance totals to Swansea and Birmingham, and all five goals they conceded came from open play, several on the break or while they were chasing. Their own home creation has been thin, and much of it came from corners late in games. Their attack runs through Ward's crossing and long throws, with Morris as the target.
Wrexham under Parkinson play a back three with wing-backs and lean on Kieffer Moore. Against Southampton the opener was a Moore header from a corner and the winner an own goal from an Ekomie delivery. At Millwall Moore scored again from a Windass ball. Their two away defensive displays with stats were tight, giving up very little.
The key matchup is Moore against Derby's centre-backs. Cashin won fifteen aerial duels against Birmingham and is out with a calf problem until late October. Taylor is out at left-back, so a winger is expected to fill in there, and the goalkeeper Vickers has one league start, in which he conceded a corner headed in at the far post. This back four has never started together, so its weakness is not yet in Derby's recent numbers.
Derby's best route is Ward's deliveries to Morris, but that meets a three-man centre-back unit built to deal with crosses, the same one that beat Southampton. Wrexham's midfield of Whiteman and Sheaf should keep the game scrappy, and that suits a side that wants corners and second balls.
I expect a cagey first half with Derby pushing at home and Wrexham happy to go long and earn dead balls. If Wrexham score first, Derby have to come out, and that is exactly when they have been opened up at home, while Wrexham's bench suits protecting a lead. That's why I'm siding with Wrexham to win away.
