Both of these are quick Nations League rematches, so I went back to what actually happened in the first games rather than the scorelines. Each first meeting ended 0-0, but in very different ways. In Slovenia, Scotland ran the game and just couldn't finish. In Finland, almost nothing happened at either end. The conditions behind both pictures are still in place for the return fixtures.
Scotland had 65% of the ball in Ljubljana, 17 shots to Slovenia's 4, and an xG of 2.16 against 0.47. Most of that came after the break. Slovenia's whole second half was worth 0.04 xG. Now the game moves to Hampden.
The forwards listed as doubtful for Scotland, like Adams, Shankland and McTominay, didn't play in that game or the two after it. So the numbers above were already produced without them. The same front line of McBurnie and Bowie then made 3.18 xG in Skopje. The heavy home defeat to Switzerland came after Hendry's red card in the 11th minute, so it says little about eleven against eleven. Hendry returns now to replace the suspended McKenna in the back three.
Slovenia don't create much on the road. They had 0.42 xG at Switzerland and have lost three of their last four away.
Finland against Belarus is a different story. The first game in Finland was 0.66 xG to 0.40, with five shots on target in total. Finland had 61% of the ball and eight corners but did very little with any of it.
That pattern held up in Finland's next match. Albania went down to ten men in the 22nd minute and Finland still only reached 0.53 xG. Both of Walta's goals were from distance. Belarus are no more dangerous: 0.40 xG in Finland, 0.61 at Albania, and only 1.10 even in a 4-0 against San Marino.
Belarus's home games are played in Budapest, so there's no home crowd to push them forward. Neither team has shown it can turn a goal into a flurry of chances, whether chasing or leading.
