China's defence has fallen apart in front of their own fans, and Tajikistan are a side that can make them pay. Back-to-back home defeats, eight goals conceded, none scored and a coach openly questioning his players' focus don't fix themselves in four days. Tajikistan come in fresher, already settled in Chongqing, with an attack that keeps finding the net. That mix is why I'm with the visitors here.
Look at how China lost. New Zealand beat them 3-0, then Palestine won 5-0 in Chongqing, three goals up by half-time. China managed 3 shots on target to Palestine's 9 that day. It was their first ever defeat to Palestine, and coach Shao Jiayi's four-man back line has taken most of the blame at home. Shao himself said he'd never experienced a defeat like it, and pointed to players who were still thinking about club football.
Tajikistan's numbers fit that weakness. They've averaged 2.1 goals a game over their last 10, and they scored twice against the same Palestine side that put five past China. Under Igor Angelovski, who took over in the summer, they've had a full autumn camp: Baku first, then two games in Chongqing. They've had eight days' rest to China's four.
China have failed to win 13 of their last 20 games, and the only time these two met recently, at the Asian Cup, it ended 0-0. Being at home and the bigger name still make China the favourite, but on current form that gap looks a lot smaller than it sounds.
