Two games where the season numbers hide what actually happens when these particular styles meet. In Atlanta, the Hawks' three losses all came from the same place, the glass and the free-throw line against teams with real size, and Cleveland have exactly that kind of frontcourt. In New Orleans, the thing that has been blowing Sacramento out is opponents' three-point volume, and the Pelicans are one of the lowest-volume, coldest shooting teams from deep. Both games turn on whether a team's usual weakness gets tested by this opponent or not.
Atlanta win with perimeter volume and quick hands. They take a lot of threes and force plenty of turnovers. They lose on the boards. Miami beat them 52-40 on the glass, and Houston beat them 52-35 and got 32 free-throw attempts to Atlanta's 21. With Veesaar and Gueye out long-term, Okongwu and Landale are the only bigs, so Jalen Johnson has to rebound at the four. That is the same thin group that produced those numbers.
Cleveland start Mobley and Allen together, and both had 12 rebounds in the win over Washington. The Hawks' best counter is pressure on Harden and Mitchell, and it is a real one, since Cleveland have had 21-23 turnover nights. But Houston already showed how this plays out: they gave it away 22 times in Atlanta's building and still won by ten because of the glass and the line. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Cleveland flew in overnight, and Atlanta are playing their fourth game in seven days after a sluggish first half on their last second night.
I expect Cleveland to build the early lead through second chances, with Atlanta's wings and home crowd pushing back late. The size edge is the part that carries over to this opponent, which is why I'm siding with Cleveland to win on the road.
In New Orleans, both teams are winless, but in very different ways. Sacramento's losses got out of hand when San Antonio, Portland, Memphis and the Clippers took 35 to 49 threes and made around 37 percent. The Pelicans take around 31 a game and make about 29 percent. They score through Zion in the paint and at the line, which is a real threat with Sacramento's backup centres Cardwell and Raynaud out. Still, that approach only got them close losses to Indiana and Utah.
The Pelicans' defining trait so far is the fourth quarter. They have been outscored in all four of them, and on their previous back-to-back they led Denver by 19 after three quarters before losing the fourth 18-37 and then the overtime. They are on a back-to-back again here, Missi is out, and Poole is listed as doubtful, which leaves even less late-game creation. Sabonis also faces an undersized front line, so the Kings' rebounding problem should be smaller than it has been.
I expect a close first half, a possible Pelicans run in the middle quarters, and the game tightening again late. That's why I'm siding with Sacramento to stay within reach of New Orleans.
