Both of these matches look like low-event games decided by small moments. At Anfield, one side has two ways to score and the other has one. In Elche, the home side is forced into the role it handles worst, against a visitor whose attack is thinner than usual. In both, the structure points to tight scorelines rather than open football.
Liverpool against Arsenal first. Arsenal will have the ball; they average around 61 percent possession, and Iraola's Liverpool give it up to good sides at home (36 percent against Brighton, 35 against City). Liverpool's plan is to break quickly through Barcola into Isak, the route that produced goals against Brentford and Brighton.
The absences narrow that plan. Szoboszlai, Ekitike and Frimpong are out, so Liverpool's creation leans on one route, and Arteta has said openly that keeping Isak far from goal is the plan. Arsenal's own break, Saliba's absence, is older and already absorbed: the Gabriel and Konsa pair has conceded very little since. Without Saka, Arsenal's goals have moved to set pieces and passing, and Gabriel and Konsa scored both goals against Everton.
Arsenal also have a second way in. Liverpool's back line keeps producing individual errors, from Van Dijk's header against Villarreal to Alisson's misplaced pass against Brighton. With fresh first elevens on both sides and the same European trip next week, load does not tilt it. The last two meetings ended 0-0 and 1-0, and half of the last ten were draws. That's why I'm backing Arsenal not to lose.
Now Elche against Valencia. Under Aguirre, Valencia have sat in a block in every game, with 37 to 46 percent of the ball. That hands Elche the ball, and at home in that role they have struggled: 67 percent against Celta with only two shots on target. Elche's goals come in transition and from penalties away from home, not from breaking down a set defence.
Valencia's counter is weaker this week. Otorbi, who scored their only open-play goal of the Aguirre era, is out, Elliott is suspended, and Sadiq has not played since the end of September. They average under three shots on target a game, and Dituro kept out every one of the twelve he faced in his last two league games. Elche's centre-forward Nino is also a doubt, and both coaches spoke about solidity and patience.
I expect a cagey first hour, Elche circulating in front of the block and Valencia waiting for space behind the full-backs. That's why I'm going with a low-scoring game in Elche.
