These two matches turn on broken defensive units. Frankfurt and Hamburg met five days ago, and the visitors' patched back line gave way once they had to chase; it is even thinner now. In Turin, both defences are patched in exactly the places the other side attacks. The common thread is that the weak spots line up with the routes to goal.
Frankfurt against HSV first. Five days ago in the cup HSV were the better side before the break, with more shots, and it was 0-0 at half-time. Then Bornauw went off, and Frankfurt scored from a corner sequence and twice more on runners as HSV opened up. Same coaches, almost the same players, same opponent.
This week HSV's centre-back unit is weaker again. Vuskovic and Capaldo are out, Bornauw is doubtful after that face injury, and the midfield screen of Remberg and Nadir is missing too. Frankfurt, by contrast, report everyone fit, with Brassier back. HSV's best weapon is still their wing-backs and a fresh Gronbaek against a Frankfurt defence that gives up shots, so a goal for them is realistic. But their away attack without Vieira and Poulsen has been thin, and Polzin wants a braver game, which opens the same spaces Frankfurt used in the cup.
I expect a competitive first half, then Frankfurt's first goal forcing HSV forward and the bench of Ebnoutalib, Uzun and Knauff finding room. That's why I'm siding with Frankfurt to win with a margin.
Now Juventus against Napoli. Juve's current attack, without Yildiz, Conceicao and Gonzalez, has relied on set pieces, wing-back crosses and second-half changes. Napoli's centre-backs are the softest part of their team this week: Buongiorno and Badiashile are out and Rrahmani is coming back from flu, after Napoli conceded three headers from crosses and corners in their last two league games.
At the other end, Napoli's most reliable route is Politano's delivery and McTominay arriving late, against a Juve defence that has conceded in seven of its last ten. Neither side has its usual tempo-setter in midfield, with Lobotka, Locatelli and Thuram all missing, which points to more transitions and second balls than control.
The first half may be cagey, but whoever goes behind has a working route and time to use it, with Zhegrova and Boga due off the Juve bench. That's why I expect both sides to find the net in Turin.
