Both Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam play open, high-event football, and the chance numbers behind their scorelines are as big as the goal counts. The home side is also short of defenders, which makes this a game built for goals at both ends.
Sparta have seen most of their recent games reach four or more goals, and Groningen about as often. The shots and chance quality for and against are similar for both teams, so this is not just a scoreline quirk. Groningen are without three defenders, two confirmed out and one doubtful, and they conceded five to Ajax and two to Nijmegen while those players were missing. Sparta concede around two and a half a game and are dangerous in transition.
Groningen should hold more of the ball at home, which invites Sparta to counter, and an early goal either way stretches the game further. The older head-to-heads were calmer and both sides played cup ties this week, so rotation could slow the start, but the recent volume points to a loud night. That's why I'm on the side of goals in this match.
