Getafe's season goal total is misleading, because it splits cleanly by venue: every one of their league goals has come at home, one per game, and none away. Sevilla have scored in all ten league games and conceded in seven. Bordalas wants defence first, yet his back line arrives having just conceded 11 in three matches. Neither side here has a reliable way of shutting the other out.
At home Getafe sit low with 30 to 44 percent of the ball, foul, win second balls and usually find one goal late, with four of their five coming from the 56th minute on. Sevilla do not dominate away either, holding 35 to 47 percent in their road rows, but their goals come from many sources, with Fofana linking and wide players arriving.
The first matchup is Sevilla's wingers against Getafe's wing-backs. Mojica is suspended, so 19-year-old Davinchi is favoured on the left after 45 minutes in the Copa, and Correia and Ejuke attack those channels. The second is Sevilla's crosses and dead balls against a small expected back three of Gudelj, Djene and Carvajal. Getafe's recent concessions came largely from exactly those routes, with three of Athletic's four from Berenguer's dead balls and Lugano's largely from crosses on one flank.
At the other end, Getafe's scorers are all available: Unal, Azon, Terrats and Satriano. The suspended Mojica and Martin scored none of the home goals, although Mojica's delivery is a real loss. Sevilla's Castrin and Salas did keep Osasuna quiet, but Sevilla have still conceded in seven of ten.
The Copa changes less than it seems. Sevilla's players who went the full 90 are outside the settled league XI, while Vlachodimos, Castrin, Ejuke, Correia and Fofana had no minutes. Getafe's likely starters were rested too, so rest roughly cancels out. Romero's relapse takes another centre-back away from Getafe, and Mangala, who scored in the Copa, is back. Neither keeper arrives on a saving run: Soria stopped 0 of 4 at Athletic and 5 of 8 at Barcelona, and Vlachodimos 3 of 8 in Madrid and 5 of 8 at Levante.
Expect a slow first half with Sevilla on the ball against a five-man block and few clear chances. Between the 55th and 75th minutes, fresh wide players and Getafe's extra forward should open the channels against tiring legs. If Sevilla score first, Getafe have to come out with Satriano and their other forwards, and that gives them both a route and more bodies in the box.
That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends. The most natural score here is one apiece, and one of these two scoring records has to break for it to go any other way.
