Vancouver are the best side in the West on paper, but the team that takes the field this week is not the one that built that record. Their central screen is gone, two attackers are missing, and the top seed is already secured. Seattle arrive needing a result, and almost all of their attacking comes after half-time. This shapes up as a match Vancouver control early and then have to defend late.
Vancouver at full strength press high, keep the ball and finish through Brian White in the air, with Laborda adding a set-piece threat. The weak point shows when Cubas is not there to screen the back line. In the one game with the current Cvetkovic and Larraz midfield, San Diego took 20 shots, 7 of them on target, at BC Place. The score was 4-1, but the volume told a different story, and Elloumi, who helped that win, is now suspended.
The key matchup is Seattle's creators between the lines, Rusnak and Cristian Roldan, against that thinned screen. Rusnak made six key passes against Houston. Vancouver's best answer is in the air: White and Laborda against a Seattle back line without Gomez Andrade, and Seattle already lost to a corner second ball last time out. In goal, Takaoka has been sharp, which is the main reason Seattle's route is about one goal, not a flood.
The absences shape the whole picture. Cubas, Sabbi and several others are out for Vancouver, and Muller only came back as a substitute. Without Muller their attack scored 1, 0, 2 and 0 in four games before the San Diego win. Seattle get Kingston after all, since he is not suspended, and Rothrock is available.
The flow I expect is a quiet first half with Vancouver on the ball and Seattle sitting deeper; their first-half xG in the last three games was tiny. After the break it changes. Seattle's second-half xG in those games was well above one each time, and with the hour-mark changes (Morris, Arriola, Kingston) they push against a home side that has every reason to manage rather than chase.
That is why I'm siding with Seattle not to lose. A level game at the hour with Seattle's bench coming on against a screen that already leaked volume is the shape this match points to.
