Two matches where a team's shot volume is real, and the question is how far it carries. Twente arrive with a strong attack and a slightly changed spine at a ground where every Excelsior league game this season has been lively. Frosinone have been scoring far above their chances, but the chances themselves are genuine and now meet a rebuilt Torino left side. In both, the way one team creates lines up with the way the other tends to give goals away.
Excelsior against Twente first. Twente average 20.6 shots, 6.9 on target and 2.4 expected goals, and six of their 21 goals have come from the 79th minute on. Excelsior concede through keeper and box errors, counters while chasing and late goals: 84, 88, 90+1, 90+2, 90+2 and 90+5 in the rows I read. All four of their home league games had at least three goals.
The key matchups are Twente's box presence around Weghorst against Plug and Widell, and Van Gassel's long ball to Yegoian behind an advanced Twente line, which needs few players and has already produced goals at Maastricht and Willem II. Twente's long absence list overstates the change, since most of those players also missed the win at AZ. Van den Belt for the suspended Weidmann keeps the goal threat and gives up some protection, which loosens the game. Excelsior's forwards barely played in the cup on Wednesday while their defenders went the full 90, so the back line carries the tired legs into the final quarter of an hour.
That's why I'm siding with goals in this one, with Twente capable of doing most of the work themselves if Excelsior have to open up.
Frosinone against Torino next. Frosinone took 71 shots and put 29 on target in their last three league games, and 13 goals on 7.24 expected goals tells you the finishing should cool off, but the volume should not. Torino are compact and low-volume at 3.4 on target a game, and they score from midfield regains.
Ghedjemis and Oyono against Torino's left side is the deciding matchup. Fortini, Rodriguez and Cacciamani are all unavailable there, so Patterson or Aboukhlal plays in front of Comuzzo, and Ghedjemis has four assists in his last two games. Torino's best route is Fitz-Jim and Simeone winning the ball against a side that gives it away often, then Adams or Simeone finishing, and Perri's eight-save display at Parma shows how that could look. Frosinone's expected changes mostly return regular starters and leave the front four intact, and Mandragora's absence takes the pivot out of Torino's midfield.
Frosinone should have the better of the first half hour on their shape and the wide route. If they lead, Torino must come out and the game opens up. If Torino lead, they tend to drop deep, as they did against Como, and Frosinone's bench has been scoring late while Torino have been conceding late.
That's why I'm siding with Frosinone, whose chances should count for more than Torino's few, even with the finishing coming back to normal.
