Strasbourg come into this on four straight defeats, but the part that matters is what they do with the ball, not who beat them. Paris FC, Nice, Rennes and PSG explain much of the defending, yet they do not explain an attack that has scored one goal or fewer in all four. Auxerre's heavy away numbers come mostly from three very strong hosts. This looks like a home side forced to carry a game it has not been carrying well.
Strasbourg's expected goals in those four games were 0.24, 0.54, 0.98 and 0.87. They held 53 percent at Rennes for 0.87 and half their shots came from outside the box, and 55 percent at Nice produced 0.54. They win about 2.7 corners a game. Their best football this season came when games opened up and Yassine, Reyna and Nanasi could run at space, as in the wins over Lens and Troyes.
Auxerre under Still have scored in all eight league games, going directly into Namaso, Faivre and Archer. They won at Le Havre with 48 percent of the ball and beat Nice with 30 percent, so being without it does not bother them. Twelve of their 13 away goals conceded came at Lens, Lyon and Rennes, and at Lens they played most of the match with ten men. The other five opponents they have faced scored six in five.
The key duel is Reyna and Yassine against Auxerre's wing-backs and midfield, which is Strasbourg's one real route and is an even contest. At the other end, Namaso and Archer run at Doukoure and Mitchell, with full-backs likely pushed up because Strasbourg have the ball. Doukoure's return is a real help to the box, though he is short of full fitness and has not played since September.
The headline absence story was Auxerre's three centre-backs missing Friday training. Makosso, Tuanzebe and Akpa all played the full match in Auxerre's last game, and the club then named all three in its official squad, so a broken unit has become a fitness question. Strasbourg are without Panichelli, Balde is doubtful, and Nanasi and Washington look like options from the bench at most.
The opening 15 minutes of each half are the danger for Auxerre, as Still himself has said, and Strasbourg should come out hard in front of their own crowd. If that passes without a goal, patience at the Meinau becomes a factor and Auxerre's direct balls grow more dangerous behind advanced full-backs. Because Auxerre nearly always score, Strasbourg will usually need two goals to win, and they have not managed that in any of their last four.
That's why I'm siding with Auxerre. A level game suits this reading as well as an away win, since two sides who each score around once and struggle to hold leads naturally end up close.
