Two matches where the attention goes to the wrong end of the absence lists. Perth's long injury list is mostly old news, and both their and Adelaide's holes sit at the back and in depth, with the front lines intact or stronger. Venezia sit last with six goals, yet they have kept reaching the goal in exactly the role they will play at Como. In both games, each side's way of scoring fits how the other concedes.
Perth against Adelaide first. Adelaide press hard through Burkitt with Goodwin and Muñiz behind him, and they meet a shaky first phase: Sutton completed 25 of 37 passes at Brisbane and lost the ball for the opener, and Perth also conceded from a free-kick header at Macarthur. Kaltak, Dench and Shamoon are all out of the back line, though they were already missing last time, and Freney returns to midfield. Perth had six shots on target with him at Macarthur and one without him at Brisbane.
Adelaide having the ball has not protected them. They gave up 11 box shots at Sydney and 16 to Lion City, and their last four goals conceded all came from the 64th minute on. Kikianis, Alagich, Burkitt, Phillis and Kitto all played heavy minutes across two matches in the past week, and now comes a cross-country trip. Neither side is on the board, and neither coach sounds content with a point.
Expect Adelaide to be most dangerous early, with Perth growing after the hour, when both their league goals have come, using fresher legs after nine days off.
That's why I'm siding with goals in Perth, with both ends offering a route and a chasing side likely to leave more space.
Como against Venezia next. Como will have the ball, as they did with 72 percent at Torino, and their goals tend to arrive after half-time through Paz, Baturina and the full-backs, with Douvikas finishing. They have scored in nine of ten, and Venezia gave up 22 box shots to Napoli and 12 to Inter even under Nicola. Stankovic can narrow the margin, but he is unlikely to stop Como altogether.
The real test is Venezia's goal, and the evidence is better than the table suggests. With only 29 and 35 percent of the ball against Napoli and Inter they still put four on target each time, and they had two more in the net ruled offside against Inter. Adams and his partner now run at Ramon and Kempf, the replacement pair with Chalobah out. Ramon won 12 aerials and scored at Torino, but he also lost the ball for their goal. Como conceded in eight of ten, including from a corner scramble at Fiorentina.
With Como due at Lens on Wednesday, Fabregas may take starters off when ahead, and his side have already given up a late break this season, Zirkzee's goal in stoppage time.
That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends here as well: Como should find their way through after the break, and Venezia need only one quick break or dead ball to get on the scoresheet.
