Two home sides with the better attacking structure face opponents whose back lines are stretched. Both games should be decided by who controls the box, and in both the hosts have the clearer route to goals.
Lyon have been strong at home, scoring 13 and conceding 5 in their last five there. Their low-shot games came away at PSG and Hoffenheim, not at their own ground. Angers concede about 1.7 a game with 1.8 xG against, and they shipped five twice recently. Lyon are missing forwards, but the attack worked in recent games without Openda, and Angers' own attack is thin with El Ouazzani out. I expect Lyon to hold the territory and win, most likely by one or two goals. That's why I'm siding with Lyon.
Frankfurt are leaky themselves, but their home attack creates real volume on target, and Hamburg's central defence is down to backups with Vuskovic and Capaldo out and Bornauw doubtful. Frankfurt already scored three at Hamburg in the cup five days ago, and Hamburg are also short up front with two forwards out. The likely shape is Frankfurt taking the initiative and winning 2-1 or better. That's why I'm siding with Frankfurt.
