This looks like a match between two shaky sides where the scoring problem is mostly on one end. Elche are an up-and-down team with a leaky home record, while Valencia's attack has been the weakest part of their season and is thinner again this week.
Valencia score about 0.7 goals a game and have been blanked in five of their last ten. Their expected goals sit around one per game, so the low output is real rather than bad luck. Their forward line is short of options, with two forwards out and Sadiq doubtful, and the suspended midfielder Elliott takes away more of their link play. Those forward absences were already there in the last three league games, where they scored once, nothing, and twice.
Elche have conceded plenty at home, but those games came against stronger sides, and their recent goals have come early and partly from penalties. If Elche score first, Valencia have to chase with a thin attack and little to chase with. The game should stay cagey early, and the most likely story is one team getting on the board while the other stays quiet. That's why I'm siding with at least one team failing to score, with Valencia the most likely one to blank.
