Lark

This opener of the Final Stage puts two right-handed starters in the matchups they handle best, so it looks like a low-scoring game settled by one swing or by the late-inning bridge. Neither side controls it. Hanshin's strength is run prevention behind Murakami, and their weak spot right now is the bats. Yokohama's way of winning is the one that just carried them through the First Stage: a starter who keeps it to one or two runs, a home run from the top of the order, and a bullpen that closes out a one-run game.

This preseason meeting is not a normal NBA game. One side has replaced its team with a camp roster. Oklahoma City travels with only nine players, all rookies, two-way players and camp invitees, while Atlanta keeps nearly its full rotation. So the margin should come from both halves: Atlanta's starters face the kids first, and then a working NBA bench faces a tired nine-man group.

Game 3 of this Pacific League first stage is a run-prevention side against a run-producing side, and the first two games were both one-run affairs decided by a single swing. What separates this decider from those games is the starting matchup. One starter has controlled this opposing lineup all season, and the other has been hittable against this opponent. Both bullpens are in different states after back-to-back days, which only matters if a starter leaves early.

This is a matchup between a half-court shooting side with a thin frontcourt and a deep, high-volume three-point team that also lives at the foul line. Barcelona's losses this season share one cause: the opponent wins the glass and the free-throw battle. The Supercopa meeting went Barcelona's way by a single point, but Valencia shot 9 of 37 from three that night and Barcelona still committed 21 turnovers. Put those two columns back to normal and that game was close to level on a neutral floor.

Two games where the early-season results tell a different story from the box scores. In Santiago, Obradoiro and Lleida are both 1-1 lower-table sides, but they are two of the fastest teams in the ACB, and their styles feed each other extra possessions and free throws. In Braunschweig, the unbeaten hosts have been carried by their opponents missing threes, while Ludwigsburg win the possession battle in almost every game.

Ryukyu against Shimane is an inside team meeting an arc team, and on the numbers from this new season the gap between them is small. Ryukyu's home brand and a run of home wins in this fixture belong to older rosters, including a shooter who has since left. What Ryukyu have measured so far on the glass and at the foul line comes to only a few points. Shimane's three-point volume is the larger structural edge.

This derby is a clash of two very different styles: the Phoenix live behind the arc, United live in the paint and at the foul line. The one-sided first meeting was not a structural verdict. It came from a historically cold shooting night on tired legs, against a United side that still had its best shooter. Two of those conditions have now flipped, and on a normal shooting night the matchup looks much closer than the reputation of that derby suggests.

This is a meeting of Olympiacos' interior-and-foul-line attack against an Efes side that wins with half-court defence and its own trips to the line. Olympiacos score freely but have leaked points in every EuroLeague game so far, while Efes have held all three of their EuroLeague opponents in the high seventies to high eighties. Efes come in without Mike James, which is the big change. The key question is whether Olympiacos can build a big margin while their own defence keeps giving points back.

This match is a meeting of two different ways of scoring. Tasmania live at the rim and the foul line, while Illawarra live on efficient twos and a high volume of threes. Illawarra's weak spot is the same place Tasmania attack, and Tasmania's weak spot is the perimeter, where Illawarra need a hot night. Both sides' absences are already built into the form they bring in.

The last Jamsil rivalry game of the regular season comes down to the mound, and I think Doosan has the better arm going. Choi Min-seok has been one of the league's best starters all year and has handled LG well, while Lim Chan-gyu hasn't won since mid-September. Add an LG lineup that has gone quiet over the last ten games, and I'm with Doosan here.

Both games of this series were decided by one run, and both times Milwaukee owned the last innings. Game 3 should look much the same: two starters who haven't been going deep, a tight score, and the game handed to the bullpens. That's where the gap shows. Milwaukee's relievers are fresh and have been sharp, while San Diego's closer is coming off the heaviest outing he's had in years.

Everyone is talking about Chris Sale against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I think this game gets decided after they leave. Yamamoto hasn't pitched in a real game since September 23, and both bullpens come into Game 3 either worn down or short-handed. This series has scored late, against relievers, and I expect more of the same.

Seibu wrapped up second place and home field for the first playoff round in the previous game, and that round starts on October 10. That leaves the season finale at ZOZO Marine mattering a lot more to Lotte than to Seibu. The pitching matchup is also closer than the names suggest. Put together, I think this game tilts toward the Marines.

This preseason opener comes down to the calendar more than the rosters. The Lakers start with a back-to-back on the road, with a third game later in the same week, while Sacramento is at home with three days before its next game. Luka Doncic is returning from a long hamstring layoff, and JJ Redick has talked about rhythm rather than heavy minutes. I expect a lot more of this game to be Kings regulars against Lakers depth than the price suggests.

Game 2 looks like another low-scoring night at Tropicana Field, and in that kind of game I trust the deeper, fresher pitching staff. Cam Schlittler gets all the attention, and he deserves it. But Freddy Peralta has been just as hard to hit lately, and Tampa Bay's bullpen comes in barely used. In a game decided by a run or two, that depth and home last at-bats are what I'm leaning on.

Cleveland are priced like the clearly better team in this series, and I don't think the season backs that up. The pitching matchup in Game 2 is close, Cleveland's bats have been quiet for a while, and Chicago come in swinging. I'm with the White Sox.

Verona are playing their first home game in Serie A after three seasons in A2, and they look better than their opening loss suggests. Milano come in between two hard EuroLeague nights and a trip to Maccabi. Their league opener was far from dominant. I expect Verona to keep this a lot closer than Milano's name suggests.

Vechta's 0-3 start isn't bad luck. It comes from playing for weeks without three natural point guards and a power forward. Without a real ball-handler they give the ball away more than anyone in the league, and Braunschweig are exactly the fast, physical team that punishes that. I think Vechta will struggle to pull away from this opponent, even at home.

SoftBank are already league champions, and this regular-season finale in Sendai is mostly a tune-up before their Climax Series Final. They have pulled Yanagita and closer Osuna from the active roster, and Makihara won't play. Rakuten's Kenta Maeda is pitching as well as he has all year. This game is about who is actually on the field, not the standings, and I like Rakuten's side of it.

Both of these games come right after a lopsided result that says less than it seems. KCC lost by 35 in the KBL opener mostly because its two best guards couldn't hit a three. Samsung lost 12-0 to Doosan because its starter was scratched hours before the game. In each case, what caused the blowout is gone for the next game, and that is what this pairing is built on.