Seibu wrapped up second place and home field for the first playoff round in the previous game, and that round starts on October 10. That leaves the season finale at ZOZO Marine mattering a lot more to Lotte than to Seibu. The pitching matchup is also closer than the names suggest. Put together, I think this game tilts toward the Marines.
Takeuchi has had a good year overall, with a 3.37 ERA over 22 starts, but September went badly. Over three starts he had an 8.22 ERA, hitters batted .381 against him, and he was sent down on September 24. He hasn't pitched in 13 days, and in two starts at ZOZO Marine this season his ERA is 6.17.
Lucchesi has been steady since he arrived. In five starts he has a 3.10 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 29 innings, with only one home run allowed. He's the big left-hander who said he wants to give it everything in the last game, and Lotte holds its home-finale ceremony afterwards.
Seibu's bats haven't carried them lately. They are averaging 3.5 runs over their last ten, and in the clincher they had two hits through seven innings before Lotte's relievers walked the game away late. With the playoffs four days off, Seibu have little reason to lean on their top relievers again, so the late innings should be less lopsided than Lotte's tired bullpen suggests.
