Game 2 looks like another low-scoring night at Tropicana Field, and in that kind of game I trust the deeper, fresher pitching staff. Cam Schlittler gets all the attention, and he deserves it. But Freddy Peralta has been just as hard to hit lately, and Tampa Bay's bullpen comes in barely used. In a game decided by a run or two, that depth and home last at-bats are what I'm leaning on.
Game 1 showed the shape of this series. Drew Rasmussen went eight innings and the Yankees finished with one hit in a 1-0 loss. That also meant the Rays' bullpen hardly had to work, and it had only covered one inning in the three days before that game. Tampa Bay can go to its relievers early without worrying about the next night.
Peralta has been sharp since he got to Tampa Bay. He posted a 0.96 ERA across five September starts, and his last outing was 5.1 scoreless innings. He also comes in well rested. The Yankees lineup has real pop, with 11 homers over its last nine games, but it also struck out 91 times in that stretch. Against a pitcher in this kind of form, that swing-and-miss matters.
The setting helps too. The Rays have won 11 of their last 12 at home and allowed only 22 runs in that run. The Yankees are 3-4 on the road over their last 20. New York did beat Tampa Bay in late September, but those wins came in the Bronx. Back in St. Petersburg, with two strong starters likely to cancel each other out for five or six innings, I think the later innings favour the Rays' bullpen.
