Two games where the early-season results tell a different story from the box scores. In Santiago, Obradoiro and Lleida are both 1-1 lower-table sides, but they are two of the fastest teams in the ACB, and their styles feed each other extra possessions and free throws. In Braunschweig, the unbeaten hosts have been carried by their opponents missing threes, while Ludwigsburg win the possession battle in almost every game.
Obradoiro vs Lleida. Obradoiro's slide in form is mostly preseason friendlies. In the league they won at Andorra and took Real Madrid to overtime, grabbing 16 offensive rebounds in that game. Their guards, Childress and Agada, create the scoring, and their weakness is fouling: no team in the league commits more. Lleida are built to punish that. They have the best two-point percentage in the league, mostly at the rim, they lead the league in offensive rebounds, and they took 33 free throws in their upset win at Valencia.
The key matchup is Lleida's rim attack, with Perrin, Kuath and Shurna and wings crashing the glass, against Soriano and Dos Anjos in a defence that fouls a lot. That should mean plenty of Lleida free throws and second chances. At the other end, Lleida turn the ball over 17 times a game, and that feeds Obradoiro's running game rather than ending possessions in a slow half-court. Both squads are reported fully available.
The two lower-scoring games these sides played came with clear one-off causes, above all Lleida going 6 of 32 from three against Burgos. Lleida keep taking that volume of threes, and at a normal make rate those shots add points. Expect a quick tempo, bigs in foul trouble by the third quarter, and free throws stretching the late minutes. That's why I expect a high-scoring game in Santiago and I'm on the over.
Braunschweig vs Ludwigsburg. Braunschweig's 3-0 start looks strong, but their opponents have gone about 29 of 110 from three while still getting 33 to 41 attempts a game. Braunschweig also shot around 45% themselves. Behind that they allow close to 60% on twos, they turn the ball over 15 to 19 times a game, and Rostock and Vechta both outrebounded them. Starting center Edigin has not played in their league games, so that is already in their record.
Ludwigsburg win games through possessions, not shooting. They average about 15 offensive rebounds and around 25 free-throw attempts a game, and their own three-point shooting has been below normal, so it has room to rise. Opponents shot a normal rate against them, so their record is close to what they really are. Their guards, Leggett, Kier and Perry, should find room to drive against that soft interior, while Bangala and Rutherford attack a defensive glass that Braunschweig's own coach singled out this week.
Braunschweig have won every first quarter and Ludwigsburg tend to start slowly, so an early home lead is likely. From the second quarter on, offensive boards and trips to the line should close the gap, as Ludwigsburg showed when they came back against Rostock and Trier. With normal shooting at both ends, this looks like a level game. That's why I'm siding with Ludwigsburg to stay right with the hosts.
