Both games of this series were decided by one run, and both times Milwaukee owned the last innings. Game 3 should look much the same: two starters who haven't been going deep, a tight score, and the game handed to the bullpens. That's where the gap shows. Milwaukee's relievers are fresh and have been sharp, while San Diego's closer is coming off the heaviest outing he's had in years.
The late-inning numbers are clear. Across the first two games, Milwaukee's bullpen gave up about two runs in roughly nine innings. In Game 2, Mason Miller retired the side in the eighth on 12 pitches. Then the Brewers made him work in the ninth, drew three walks, and Jackson Chourio won it with a two-run single on Miller's 40th pitch. That patience isn't new. Milwaukee drew 35 walks over its last ten games, and four of its recent wins were by a single run.
Miller gets one off day after 40 pitches, his most since 2023. He'll probably be available in an elimination game, but likely not for a long stint. San Diego's bullpen was also the side that lost Game 1, on a home run off a reliever.
Dustin May hasn't been sharp lately and hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2020. Against this lineup, though, he's been excellent: three starts this season, 22 innings, three runs, 22 strikeouts and five walks. Even if he only gives a few innings, the game is set up for the Brewers' bullpen.
San Diego has been getting runners on, going 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position and leaving 20 on base in two games. In a close game against a deep, rested bullpen, those chances still have to be converted, and that has been Milwaukee's strength all series.
