Cleveland are priced like the clearly better team in this series, and I don't think the season backs that up. The pitching matchup in Game 2 is close, Cleveland's bats have been quiet for a while, and Chicago come in swinging. I'm with the White Sox.
Look at the arms first. Gavin Williams had a big strikeout year for Cleveland, 248 in 184.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA, but his last regular-season start lasted 3.1 innings with four runs allowed. Sean Burke finished at 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA and 185 strikeouts. On paper that's no edge for the home side.
Cleveland's offence is the bigger story. In five of their last eight games they scored 0, 2, 1, 0 and 1 runs, and in Game 1 they managed just three hits against a Chicago bullpen game. They'd had almost a week off after the bye, and Jose Ramirez has played through reduced power all season after a hamate fracture.
Chicago are rolling. They won both Wild Card games in Houston by a combined 16-6, then shut Cleveland out in Game 1, with Hagen Smith throwing 2.2 hitless innings and Munetaka Murakami launching a 440-foot homer. Over their last ten games they've hit .276 with 16 home runs and won eight.
The longer view points the same way. Chicago finished the regular season with a run differential of plus 54, against Cleveland's plus 12, and they won the season series 9-7. Cleveland took the division by catching Chicago in September, and that seeding is what the price leans on.
