This preseason meeting is not a normal NBA game. One side has replaced its team with a camp roster. Oklahoma City travels with only nine players, all rookies, two-way players and camp invitees, while Atlanta keeps nearly its full rotation. So the margin should come from both halves: Atlanta's starters face the kids first, and then a working NBA bench faces a tired nine-man group.
The Thunder's two preseason games show what this young unit does once the rotation players leave the floor. They led at half both times while regulars were still playing, and then lost the second half by about twenty against New Orleans and again against Milwaukee. Those second halves came with Mitchell, McCain and Kenrich Williams still helping. None of them make this trip. Twelve players are out after Daigneault confirmed that the returning rotation stays home ahead of the back-to-back.
Atlanta's three preseason games split cleanly. When its starters met NBA starters, the first halves were poor. Its bench then won or drew every second half against NBA benches. The offence is built on heavy three-point volume, around forty-five attempts a game, plus steady trips to the line. It has scored at least 119 in every game so far.
The key matchups favour the home side. Daniels and Dort hounding rookie guards like Stirtz and Dix should create turnovers and easy transition baskets. Mara has been perfect from the field in two games, but he now faces Okongwu for real minutes, and near-perfect finishing does not hold up. This young group also gave New Orleans forty-seven free throws. With only nine bodies, foul trouble pushes camp invitees into long minutes.
On absences, Alexander-Walker and Finney-Smith are resting for Atlanta, and Daniels or Okongwu may also get a night off. Even then, Atlanta's bench is the same one that has outplayed NBA second units. On the other side, every Thunder player has to cover close to twenty-seven minutes, with no rotation help in the second half.
The game should run the opposite way to the Thunder's earlier games. Atlanta builds an early lead with its starters, and the gap widens in the third and fourth quarters as legs go. That's why I'm siding with the Atlanta Hawks to win by a clear margin at home.
