Everyone is talking about Chris Sale against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I think this game gets decided after they leave. Yamamoto hasn't pitched in a real game since September 23, and both bullpens come into Game 3 either worn down or short-handed. This series has scored late, against relievers, and I expect more of the same.
Start with Yamamoto. His last outing was on September 23, and since then he has only thrown a simulated game. This is his first appearance of the postseason. He's elite when he's sharp (0.87 WHIP this year), but after nearly two weeks off, how deep he goes is an open question.
Sale comes in on extra rest, which is good for him. The issue is what Atlanta has left behind him. The Braves opened the series with two bullpen games. Dylan Dodd went three innings in Game 1 and Ray Kerr went the first eight outs in Game 2, his second long outing in four days. Didier Fuentes then threw 47 pitches to get 11 outs. That's a lot of the Braves' relief depth already used up.
The Dodgers' bullpen isn't much better off. Graterol, Treinen, Casparius, Klein and Cousins are all on the injured list. In Game 2, Dodgers pitchers walked eight Braves, Edgardo Henriquez gave up hits in his first outing in three weeks, and Kris Bubic threw the wild pitch that put Atlanta ahead. In Game 1, Tanner Scott served up a two-run homer to Ozzie Albies in the ninth.
The Braves' relievers have been hit too. The Dodgers hit three home runs off Atlanta's bullpen from the fourth inning on in Game 1, and Max Muncy took Fuentes deep late in Game 2. Los Angeles has the second-best slugging percentage in the majors, and Freddie Freeman's swing looks back after his first home run since early September.
So the matchup comes down to how long the starters last. If one of them is out by the middle innings, the rest of the game falls to bullpens that have already given up runs in bunches in this series.
