This opener of the Final Stage puts two right-handed starters in the matchups they handle best, so it looks like a low-scoring game settled by one swing or by the late-inning bridge. Neither side controls it. Hanshin's strength is run prevention behind Murakami, and their weak spot right now is the bats. Yokohama's way of winning is the one that just carried them through the First Stage: a starter who keeps it to one or two runs, a home run from the top of the order, and a bullpen that closes out a one-run game.
Murakami has been the best starter in the league this season, but his record against Yokohama is unusual. Yokohama won four of his five starts against them. He allowed nine runs in 34 innings over those starts, and Maki and Miyazaki both hit above .300 off him. In late September he threw seven scoreless innings in Yokohama, and the BayStars still won 2-1 against the Hanshin bullpen.
On the other side, Taira has handled Hanshin's regular lineup all year. Over four starts against it he allowed five runs in a little over 22 innings, and only three runs in more than 16 innings at Koshien. Sato Teruaki is hitless in thirteen at-bats against him, with seven strikeouts.
Timing matters here too. Hanshin wrapped up the pennant early and then went quiet at the plate, scoring zero, two, two and one in four of their last five regular-season games, and they have not played for almost a week. Yokohama come in with rhythm after two tight wins in the First Stage a few days ago, with Watarai and Maki going deep in both. Both bullpens are rested, so the late innings are an even fight rather than an edge for the home side.
Expect the first five or six innings to be tight and low. Taira usually hands over to Ise, Iwata, Hamachi and the closer around the sixth, while Murakami can work deeper. The game probably turns either on one swing from the top of Yokohama's order or on the Hanshin bullpen in the late innings, the same place the September game turned.
Hanshin have the bigger name on the mound and home field, but the matchups that apply to this exact game lean the other way. That's why I'm siding with the Yokohama BayStars to win this one.
