Ryukyu against Shimane is an inside team meeting an arc team, and on the numbers from this new season the gap between them is small. Ryukyu's home brand and a run of home wins in this fixture belong to older rosters, including a shooter who has since left. What Ryukyu have measured so far on the glass and at the foul line comes to only a few points. Shimane's three-point volume is the larger structural edge.
Ryukyu play through the paint. Cooley, Jones and Sadohara work the boards, while Nwaba and Waki attack the rim and draw fouls. They drew 29 and 30 free throws in the two games at Shiga. Their weakness is the perimeter: they have made about 28% of their threes, roughly eight a game. Kishimoto left in May and Jerrett is out, so there is no second way to score when the paint is packed or an opponent simply out-shoots them, as Gunma did on their floor.
Shimane are built around volume from deep. Okada creates, Dennis scores, and Kay and Heath can both step out and shoot. They have taken about 32 threes a game, and they beat the defending champion twice on the road before beating Hokkaido. Their losses to Nagoya DD came from turnovers and from losing the second-chance battle.
The key matchup is Shimane's shooters against a Ryukyu perimeter defence that has not yet faced this kind of volume. Ryukyu's real route is the glass and the line, but they lost the boards at home to Gunma and won them by only one in the first Shiga game, so that route has not been reliably big. Ryukyu are also not a pressure side, so the turnover route that hurt Shimane against DD is weaker here.
On availability, Ryukyu's absences, Jerrett and Kawamasada, had already been missing in recent games. Shimane have Arai and Sukegawa back, so their full rotation is available. Expect Ryukyu to lead early through paint touches and free throws, with Shimane's strong third quarters, driven by threes, swinging it back.
This looks like a close game, not a comfortable home win. That's why I'm siding with Shimane on the road in this one.
