This is a meeting of Olympiacos' interior-and-foul-line attack against an Efes side that wins with half-court defence and its own trips to the line. Olympiacos score freely but have leaked points in every EuroLeague game so far, while Efes have held all three of their EuroLeague opponents in the high seventies to high eighties. Efes come in without Mike James, which is the big change. The key question is whether Olympiacos can build a big margin while their own defence keeps giving points back.
Olympiacos have played all three EuroLeague games on the road, and they score through Vezenkov and Ndiaye inside. They made 28 of 42 twos and drew 28 free throws at Zalgiris, and 28 of 43 twos at Virtus. The other side of that is their defence: 89 conceded at Baskonia, 91 at Zalgiris and 96 at Virtus, where they were also beaten on the boards. Every one of their EuroLeague games has gone past 184 combined points.
Efes' 1-2 record hides how they lost. They went down by 7 at Barcelona and by 5 at Zvezda, and beat Real Madrid at home by 10, forcing 21 turnovers. They are poor from three, at about 29%, so they do not try to win a shootout. They slow the game down, defend in the half court and get to the line, with 25 and 22 free-throw attempts in two of those three games.
On absences, Mike James' Achilles injury is the new one. He played 22-31 minutes, but he was scoring 11-12 a game and not carrying the offence alone: Strazel, Loyd and Dozier shared the load, and Efes won at Bandirma without him. Papagiannis and Cordinier were already missing in the games where Efes stayed close, so Olympiacos' best inside matchup is nothing new. Hall is available for Olympiacos, and only Plotas is out.
I expect Olympiacos to push inside early in their first home game at the new arena. The second and third quarters, when Efes' guards have to create without James, are where a gap could open. But for Olympiacos to pull clear they need to score around a hundred against a defence that has not allowed that to anyone in Europe, and their own defence has given points back every time. Most of the last nine meetings were decided by six points or fewer.
That's why I'm siding with Anadolu Efes to keep this close.
