This match is a meeting of two different ways of scoring. Tasmania live at the rim and the foul line, while Illawarra live on efficient twos and a high volume of threes. Illawarra's weak spot is the same place Tasmania attack, and Tasmania's weak spot is the perimeter, where Illawarra need a hot night. Both sides' absences are already built into the form they bring in.
Illawarra are 1-4. They have made 57% of their twos and take about 31 threes a game, but the threes swing wildly, from 5 of 24 at South East Melbourne to 15 of 31 at home against Adelaide. The problem is at the other end. They have allowed almost 105 points a game, opponents have made close to 58% of their twos, and Illawarra give up nearly 28 free-throw attempts a game while drawing under 17.
Tasmania are 3-1, and they are not a shooting team. They are around 34% from three and under 45% from the field. They win with the frontcourt: almost 27 free-throw attempts drawn per game, Magnay alone earning 14 against Melbourne, and a rim defence that holds opponents to about half their twos.
The key matchup is Magnay and Bannan against Froling. With Peatling out and Days gone, Froling is Illawarra's only true big. When he played just 16 minutes at South East Melbourne, the opponent shot 43 free throws. If he picks up fouls, Illawarra are left with Maker and forwards. On the other side, Illawarra's shooters, Harvey, Swaka, Narkle and Martin, face a Tasmania defence that allows plenty of three-point attempts. That is Illawarra's way into the game.
On absences, Tasmania are without Deng, Drmic and Hamilton, and Ayre is a test, but they already beat Brisbane in overtime and Melbourne with the same nine-man group. Illawarra played four of their five games without Peatling and Days. Neither side brings fresh news, and Tasmania arrive with six days of rest.
I expect Illawarra to start brightly at home, as their first quarters suggest. Tasmania usually take over in the second and third quarters, and that is where the foul count on Illawarra's thin frontcourt should start to bite. On common opponents, Tasmania beat South East Melbourne and Brisbane, while Illawarra lost to both.
The foul line is where this game should tilt, and it tilts toward the visitors. That's why I'm siding with Tasmania to win this one.
