This derby is a clash of two very different styles: the Phoenix live behind the arc, United live in the paint and at the foul line. The one-sided first meeting was not a structural verdict. It came from a historically cold shooting night on tired legs, against a United side that still had its best shooter. Two of those conditions have now flipped, and on a normal shooting night the matchup looks much closer than the reputation of that derby suggests.
The Phoenix are an extreme volume team from three. Across five league games they have taken between 29 and 45 threes, and they win when those fall. Inside the arc they are efficient but take few shots, and they look after the ball well, turning it over only about ten times a game. United are the opposite: lots of two-point attempts at a good rate, about 25 free throws a game, and Josh Oduro finishing inside.
The key matchup is the Phoenix shooters, led by Sobey, Daniels, Glover and Mays, against a United perimeter defence that concedes more three-point attempts than anyone in this sample. Teams other than the Phoenix made about 37% of those against United, and Cairns beat them at home with 15 threes. On the other end, Oduro and Cole Anthony attack a Phoenix interior that has let opponents shoot above 50% on twos in every game. That edge is real, but it measures out at only a few points.
Availability matters here mostly on the United side. Chris Goulding is out with a calf injury, and in the first derby he hit five of United's twelve threes. In the two games since he went down, United have made under 28% from deep. On the Phoenix side, Goodrick and Foster are out, but both had already missed recent games, so that is in the form already. It does leave the Phoenix a body short inside.
The first derby was 69-57 to United after three quarters before a lopsided fourth. The Phoenix went 4 from 41 from three, in their third game in six days. This time they come in on six days of rest, while United played a road game midweek. Expect United to build early through the paint and the line, then the game to swing on Phoenix three-point runs in the middle quarters.
At normal shooting, the Phoenix volume edge from deep is worth more than United's inside and free-throw edge, and United no longer have the shooter who answered last time. That's why I'm siding with South East Melbourne at home in this one.
