Stoke at home against bottom-placed Preston looks like a mismatch on paper, but both attacks are short on chance creation in the roles they'll play in this match. Stoke keep the ball safely and do very little with it against lower-table sides. Preston under Graham Alexander sit in a deep five and barely threaten on the road. Put together, that points to a low-event game decided by one or two moments.
Under Mark Robins, Stoke have won games through finishing and goalkeeping rather than volume. Against Sheffield United and Bristol City at home they had over 60 percent of the ball, yet created little: twelve shots and modest expected goals in the first, one shot on target in the goalless draw with Bristol City. The upside is that those opponents created almost nothing either.
Preston changed manager at the end of September, and the new set-up gives up the ball and defends deep. In the two away games under Alexander they managed one shot on target each time. Their collapses at Birmingham and Wrexham came against sides that created far more than Stoke usually do, and the Birmingham game included a red card.
The absences push this further. Stoke lost their main runner, Cisse, to injury against Bristol City, and he is out until mid-November. Gallagher and Ingelsson are also out, which leaves Hirst and Bozenik leading a line that has struggled to hit the target. Preston are without three midfielders, all of whom were already missing in their recent games, and Devine is carrying a calf problem. Their most realistic goal is Hughes from a corner.
I expect a first half of Stoke possession against a set block, with few clear chances. Both recent Stoke home games were goalless at the break. If it stays level past the hour, Preston keep their shape and the game drifts towards a one-goal finish or a draw. Stoke's finishing has been running ahead of their chances, but this group has less of the attack that produced those finishes. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game.
