Two Sultanlar Ligi matches where the late sets matter more than the early ones. Nilufer start well at home but have twice let a two-set lead slip, while Aras Kargo have come back from behind more than once. THY are the stronger side against Ilbank, but they have not yet closed out a league match without dropping a set.
At Nilufer, the settled home six can take one or both of the first two sets on serve rhythm, as they did against Eczacibasi and Kuzeyboru. The problem has come from the third set on: they lost sets three and four in those matches by wide margins, which looks like a real fade rather than bad luck. Aras came back from two sets down against Galatasaray, a side that beat Nilufer, and from a set down at Afyon, finishing through Kalandadze, May, Bengisu and a middle. The core that beat Nilufer three times last season, Anthouli, Olaya and the coach, is still there.
Aras's newer setter link may start slowly, so I expect the match to turn around the third set and could easily go to five. That's why I'm siding with Aras Kargo to win the match.
At THY, the home side's serve should win the first set against an Ilbank reception that is still new. But THY have dropped a set in all five league matches, including against three lower-table sides, sometimes after a slow start and sometimes after relaxing with a lead. Ilbank's one route that needs no clean reception is Smarzek, set by Cicekoglu, and that link has started every league match together and taken a set in four of five, both away trips included. THY also travel to Vakifbank a few days later.
Expect THY to win, most likely in four. I'm backing Ilbank to take at least one set.
