THY are the stronger team and should win this match, but how they win it matters more than whether they do. Their rebuilt six has swung from set to set all season and has yet to sweep anyone in the league. Ilbank, also new this year, keep finding a way to take a set off mid-table sides. The most likely picture is a THY win that drops at least one set along the way.
Under Davide Mazzanti, THY have a new setter in Sila Caliskan, with Lazareva and either Milenkovic or Degradi on the outside and Baijens and Beyza Arici in the middle. They win through runs, yet they dropped a set in all five league games, including at home to eleventh-placed Nilufer and away at bottom-three Afyon. They lost set three at Aras after leading two sets to nothing, came from two down to beat Galatasaray, and lost at Kuzeyboru. Their only clean sweeps came in the September cup.
Ilbank run their attack through new setter Cagla Cicekoglu to the Polish opposite Malwina Smarzek. She is the finisher who can turn a long, scrappy rally into a point, and that is how one THY lapse becomes a lost set. Ilbank took a set in four of five league games, including on the road at Galatasaray and Zeren. Against Afyon, a team both sides have played, both won in four with similar margins.
The key battle is THY's block and serve against Smarzek and Ilbank's reception. Eczacibasi swept Ilbank by breaking that reception early, so THY can win in three if they serve like a top-four side from the first point. Frantti's absence from Ilbank's last squad affects their second outside spot, not the Smarzek channel, and they have already won without her.
The flow I expect is THY in control of the first two sets, with set three after a lead as Ilbank's best window. THY travel to Vakifbank a few days later, which gives Mazzanti a reason to manage minutes and makes a mid-match dip more likely, not less.
That's why I'm siding with Ilbank to stay in this match and push THY beyond a straight-sets win.
