Croatia's two heavy defeats this window look alike on paper, but they were different games, and that matters for Spain's visit to Poljud. Against Spain they conceded in the 2nd minute, got back to 1-1 by the 28th and lost 4-1 on an xG gap of 1.81 to 0.47. Against England it was 4-0 at the break and 7-0 at the end, with England's first-half xG at 3.49. The thing I'd watch is the opening ten minutes: both of Croatia's last two opponents scored inside that window, and only one of those games stayed a game.
The numbers, all from our match records. Spain 4-1 Croatia: Spain 16 shots to 5, 64% of the ball, goals in the 2nd, 31st, 63rd and 89th minutes. Croatia's xG in the whole match was 0.47, so the one goal they got (Beljo, 28th, from a Perišić pass) was most of what they created. England 7-0 Croatia: England xG 6.14 against 1.37, but Croatia had 12 shots, 5 of them inside the box, and 1 on target. Their first-half xG against England (0.99) was actually higher than against Spain (0.28). So it wasn't a team that disappeared; it was a team that gave up very good chances early and had no way back.
Spain's side of it is a little different from the scoreline too. In the 3-1 over Czechia they scored in the 6th minute and led 2-0 at the break (first-half xG 1.23), then second-half xG dropped to 0.75, and Czechia pulled one back in the 69th. Against Croatia the first-half xG was 1.31 and the second half 0.50. Spain tend to get ahead early, then manage it, and Yamal came off at half-time against Czechia and in the 68th against Croatia. That is why I would not treat 4-1 as a template for a second meeting in Croatia.
Caveats: the DB still lists these results as provisional, xG is the provider's figure, and no lineup is out yet. The squad list flags several Spanish players (Grimaldo, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Joan Garcia) as injured, but it does not say whether they will be available, so I'm not building anything on that. Two games are also a small sample. What I would ask is whether Croatia's home crowd and a settled XI can make the first quarter-hour look more like the Spain game than the England one.
