[2026 MLS] FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 18, 21:00 UTC
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew meet at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati in a Hell Is Real derby between two Ohio clubs, with major implications for the Eastern Conference playoff race. The hosts occupy the last playoff spot in ninth, while 13th-place Columbus Crew can move within one point of them with a win.
1. Match overview and team form
The gap in the standings does not fully reflect the difference in recent performances. According to the data center’s regular-season figures as of October 18, FC Cincinnati have 36 points from 28 matches, while Columbus Crew have 32 points from 29. Cincinnati have played one fewer game than most of their rivals, but have struggled to pick up points at home lately. Columbus have a poor away record, though they have created more chances since their new attacking group began playing together in mid-September.
Team FC Cincinnati: Regular-season goals for and against: 60-68 / Last 9 home matches: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 27-20 Columbus Crew: Regular-season goals for and against: 44-47 / Last 9 away matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 6 losses, 13-20
FC Cincinnati’s home strength has come from scoring rather than defending. They have scored 27 goals and conceded 20 in their last 9 home matches, keeping a clean sheet just once. Over their 4 home league games since late August, they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss. Striker Kevin Denkey has scored 6 goals in his last 4 appearances, and Tom Barlow has scored in 3 straight league games. Still, Cincinnati scored twice and lost 3-2 to New England Revolution in their last match. They conceded in the 21st minute from a cross from the right and again in the 43rd from a corner, losing track of an opponent on both occasions. Pat Noonan said the team had worked on defending the penalty area and dealing with crosses, but the same problems surfaced again.
Columbus Crew’s only win in their last 9 away matches came against Eastern Conference bottom side CF Montréal. Four of their 6 defeats were by a single goal, though, and they scored in 8 of those 9 games. The standings and goals conceded alone do not point to a complete breakdown in their defensive structure. According to FC Cincinnati, Columbus have an expected goals against figure of 37.6 this season, third-best in the league, but have actually conceded 47. That suggests they have allowed more goals than the quality of chances they have faced would indicate. At Orlando City SC, they conceded from a cross just 46 seconds after kick-off. Then, at 2-2 in the 89th minute, a counterattack led to the winner immediately after their own shot was saved.
Changes to the squad have shaped Columbus Crew’s recent results. After Diego Rossi and Max Arfsten left in the summer, Bryce Mendes, Santiago Rodríguez and Anass Zaroury joined the club. Since this group began starting together with Taha Habroune in mid-September, Columbus have won 4 of their last 5 matches, including the US Open Cup. They came from behind to beat Charlotte FC 3-1 in their last game, recording 33 shots. But 3 of those 4 wins came at home. Their only away league win with the new group was against CF Montréal, so it is hard to assume their home form will carry over to this trip.
Team selection remains an important variable right up to kick-off. In its October 17 report, MLS listed center backs Miles Robinson and José Martínez as out for FC Cincinnati, and Wessam Abou Ali and Rudy Camacho as out for Columbus Crew. Robinson has made 20 league appearances this season, 19 of them starts. Julián Malatini replaced him in the previous game for his first start for Cincinnati, but was taken off at half-time. Camacho, meanwhile, has not featured recently, so Columbus have already built their recent run without him.
Evander’s starting status matters for FC Cincinnati’s attack. He has 13 goals and 10 assists in 25 league appearances this season, and played around 30 minutes in the previous match after a minor injury. He said he was ready to play 90 minutes, but has not completed a full match since late September. If Evander starts behind the two strikers and supplies forward passes, Cincinnati could address the lack of support for their forwards that Noonan pointed out before the last game.
Both teams had 4 days off after their previous matches. The schedules diverge after this derby. Columbus Crew face St. Louis City SC in the US Open Cup final 3 days later, while FC Cincinnati have a league doubleheader against D.C. United ahead. Laurent Courtois has not revealed his starting plans for the derby. He has started regulars such as Mendes, Rodríguez and Habroune in the September Open Cup semifinal, but whether he makes the same choices in a league game just before the final is another matter.
Past meetings show how these teams have tried to exploit each other. At home in July, Columbus fell behind to Denkey’s ninth-minute goal, then turned the game around before half-time with a corner header and a penalty to win 2-1. FC Cincinnati won both home games in last season’s playoffs, but have not beaten Columbus at home in a regular-season match since 2023. Columbus had a different coach last season, and their attack has also changed since July. For this match, how the teams handle corners and wide attacks again matters more than the past results.
2. Matchup analysis
Both teams like to keep possession and push their fullbacks forward. FC Cincinnati advance their wingbacks from a back three to deliver crosses, with Denkey looking to finish in front of goal. Columbus also keep the ball for long spells away from home. Their average possession in their last 10 league away matches is 56.7%, above their overall average of 53.8%. They had 62% possession in the first half of the July meeting. If Columbus dominate the ball again, Cincinnati’s wingbacks will have to spend more time defending. If Cincinnati win possession and break quickly, they can target the space behind Columbus’s advancing fullbacks.
Columbus can target the space around the back three without Robinson, especially on the outside. Rodríguez set up Habroune with a pass in behind the defense in the match against Orlando City SC. Mohamed Farsi drives forward from the right into the penalty area, while Mendes contributes to the build-up and set pieces. Cincinnati failed to stop crosses in their last match and also conceded to a runner who got into the box. If Columbus’s forward passes and wide attacks work, Cincinnati’s replacement defense will have to deal with crosses and runs through the middle at the same time.
Set pieces could also give Columbus a chance. In the July derby, Jamal Thiaré headed in Dylan Chambost’s corner. Cincinnati also lost their mark from a corner against New England Revolution in their last game. Mendes scored directly from a free kick against CF Montréal, and Thiaré could be an option off the bench. With Robinson out and the back line reshuffled, how Cincinnati pick up runners in the penalty area matters. Still, one goal from July does not mean the same player will score in the same way this time.
FC Cincinnati also have ways to test Columbus’s away defense. Columbus conceded from two wide crosses away to D.C. United, and lost at Orlando City SC after an early cross and a late counterattack. Cincinnati’s consolation goal in their last match came when Denkey finished Tyrell Malacia’s low cross in front of goal. Their winner against Atlanta United came when Kyle Smith intercepted a forward pass and immediately played Barlow through. If Columbus lose the ball with their fullbacks pushed up, Cincinnati’s two forwards can run into the space behind them.
Whether Courtois chooses three or four defenders will also shape this matchup. Columbus have changed their defensive shape from game to game recently. A back three could add numbers out wide and limit the time Cincinnati’s wingbacks have to cross. A back four could leave more room for Cincinnati’s attacking midfielder to receive the ball between Columbus’s midfield and defensive lines. If Evander starts, Cincinnati will have a player from the outset to feed the two strikers, though his minutes will also depend on his fitness.
Neither side will find it easy to manage the game after scoring first. FC Cincinnati have drawn both of the last 10 games in which they led at half-time. When trailing, Noonan has tried to turn things around with several substitutions at half-time or early in the second half. They have also earned points with goals in stoppage time in 8 matches this season. But against New England Revolution, Cincinnati made 3 half-time substitutions and conceded again just 6 minutes later. The impact of adding attackers has to be weighed alongside the defensive adjustments that come with it.
Columbus Crew have lost all 4 of their last 10 matches when they were behind at half-time. By contrast, they won 4 and lost 1 of the 5 games that were level at the break. If Rodríguez and Habroune attack the space behind Cincinnati’s defense from the start, Columbus could take the lead. If Cincinnati keep things level or score first, Columbus will have to balance playing time for key players against the need to chase the game with the final coming up. Courtois has previously brought on defenders to protect a lead, but the final could also influence his second-half choices this time.
If both teams start their first-choice attackers, neither is likely to keep the other pinned back for the whole game. While Columbus have the ball, the link-up between Farsi and Rodríguez will test Cincinnati out wide. When Cincinnati win it back, Malacia’s crosses, Denkey’s positioning and quick passes to Barlow will put pressure on the opposite defense. The balance could shift if Columbus rest several of their new attacking group. Their forward passing and the link-up on the right that have driven their recent form could weaken, giving Cincinnati more time to attack from wide areas.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market has made FC Cincinnati slight favorites on the strength of their position and home scoring, along with Columbus Crew’s single away win, but recent movement has favored Columbus. Robinson’s absence and the results from Columbus’s new attacking group give that shift a basis. Still, Columbus’s recent wins have mainly come at home, and they play away here just 3 days before a cup final. We see a higher chance of both teams scoring and sharing the points than of Columbus winning.
The more likely scenario is that Columbus start the attacking group they have used since September. Courtois started his key attackers in the earlier Open Cup semifinal, and Columbus need points in the playoff race. If this group plays, Mendes and Chambost’s set pieces and Rodríguez’s passes in behind could trouble a Cincinnati defense missing Robinson. Cincinnati can target the wide openings Columbus have allowed away from home with Malacia’s crosses and Denkey’s finishing. In the second half, Noonan’s attacking substitutions could coincide with Columbus managing players’ minutes.
Our score predictions are FC Cincinnati 2-2 Columbus Crew or FC Cincinnati 3-1 Columbus Crew. If the first-choice attacking group plays, we expect Columbus to threaten from wide areas and set pieces, while Cincinnati respond with crosses and a late push, making a 2-2 draw the likeliest outcome. If Courtois rests most of that group ahead of the final, Cincinnati could have more of the ball and attack down the flanks more often, winning by 2 goals. Our draw prediction with Columbus’s regular attackers in the lineup depends on them taking advantage of Cincinnati’s set-piece defending and the gap at center back. If Cincinnati keep their shape at corners and Malatini holds the middle, the game could instead swing towards a home win.
