[2026-27 Serie A] Juventus vs SS Lazio Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 18, 18:45 (UTC)
Juventus and SS Lazio meet in Round 7 of Serie A at Allianz Stadium in Turin, kicking off at 18:45 UTC on October 18. Juventus have 11 points and need to chase a Lazio side five points ahead of them, with Juve at home. Lazio are unbeaten in the league since the start of the season, and this game tests whether they can extend a run of three straight away wins, this time against a top-half side.
1. Match overview and team form
In the October 18 table, Juventus are 7th and SS Lazio 3rd. Lazio have scored two more goals and conceded one fewer. However, all five of Lazio's wins came against teams now sitting 14th or lower. In their only game against a top-half side, they led AC Milan 2-0 and drew 2-2. Juventus have faced three teams currently in the top six: they beat Frosinone and drew with AC Milan and Cagliari. The current table does not exactly reflect each team's strength at the time of those games, but we can't treat the two sides' points as earned under the same conditions.
Teams Juventus: 6 league games, 7th, 3W 2D 1L, 9 scored, 5 conceded / home form this season: home 2W 1D, 5 scored, 1 conceded SS Lazio: 6 league games, 3rd, 5W 1D, 11 scored, 4 conceded / away form this season: away 3W, 5 scored, 1 conceded
Their recent results show different problems. Juventus took 22 shots against Cagliari and still drew 1-1. In the first half they held the ball for long spells but did not create enough chances to finish inside the box, and in the 81st minute Kolo Muani headed in an Alaibegovic cross to level. Next, away at Celta Vigo, substitute Kolo Muani headed in a Cambiaso cross in second-half stoppage time for a 2-1 win. Six of Juventus's nine league goals this season came after the 77th minute, and a substitute was involved in all six. Kolo Muani's consecutive goals are a positive, but both came from second-half crosses, so we can't say the first-half attacking problem has been solved.
SS Lazio scored twice in the first half of their last game against AC Monza by cutting out the opponent's attempts to play out from the back. But even though Monza were down to 10 men from the 35th minute, Lazio conceded from a corner right after the restart and also needed a save from Mandas to prevent an equalizer. Gattuso admitted after the game that his side had not managed the result. Away at Venezia, Mandas saved a first-half penalty and a follow-up shot, and Lazio scored in the second half. Their six-game unbeaten run has rested not only on winning the ball high up the pitch but also on goalkeeping. All four of their league goals conceded came in the second half, which matters against Juventus's attacking substitutions today.
The rest favors SS Lazio. Their last competitive game was against AC Monza on October 11, and with a cup exit and no European football they are focused on the league. Juventus played away at Celta Vigo on October 15 local time and got back to Turin at 4:30 a.m. That said, not every starter played long on Thursday. Kolo Muani, Nicolas Gonzalez, Bremer and Lucumí played roughly 20 to 30 minutes in the second half. By contrast, Kalulu, McKennie and Sare started both the Cagliari and Celta Vigo games, and the likely second-half substitutes Woltemade, Koopmeiners and Cambiaso started on Thursday. The schedule will affect players differently.
Juventus also have a change in how the game is directed. Spalletti was sent off against Cagliari and will watch from the stands, with assistant coach Domenichini in charge on the bench. Spalletti has used both a 4-2-3-1 and a 3-4-2-1 depending on the opponent and the game state, and has moved players around even in the first half. Gattuso has stuck to a 4-3-3 in all six league games. When Belahyane drops between the center-backs, Tavares and Floriani advance, and Taylor and Pratesi move out wide.
The absentees' roles are clear too. Juventus lose Locatelli, who received the ball in midfield and set up the play, and Thuram, who carried it forward himself. Yildiz, who provided individual dribbling on the left, is also out, so Alaibegovic's crosses could matter even more. At Lazio, Belahyane already fills Rovella's role, but with Gudmundsson out and Cancellieri unlikely to play, the options for second-half attacking changes are fewer. Juventus's Boga can play about 30 minutes, and the condition of left-back Celik affects the starting XI.
The head-to-head record shows both Juventus's home edge and Lazio's recent resistance. Lazio have not won in their last 10 away games in Turin, but in their last three against Juventus they have one win and two draws. In the 2-2 draw in Turin last February, Lazio scored twice first by winning the ball in midfield or playing long passes behind the defense, and Juventus levelled with two headers from crosses. Sarri was Lazio's manager then, so that result is hard to carry over to today. Still, winning the ball in midfield, runs behind the defense, crosses and headers remain the main routes to goal for both teams.
2. Matchup analysis
Early on, Lazio's pressing is likely to test the Juventus midfield. Against AC Monza, Taylor and Pratesi won the ball as the opponent played out from the back, and that led to both first-half goals. With Locatelli and Thuram out, Douglas Luiz and Sare are likely to fill those spots. Sare showed against Cagliari that he can win the ball and feed Kolo Muani, but that is a separate question from whether the two can play forward passes calmly under Lazio's pressure. Three of the five goals Juventus have conceded in the league this season came right after losing the ball in attack.
Juventus do have ways to beat the press. They can go long to Kolo Muani, or once Tavares has pushed up, send Nicolas Gonzalez in behind on the wing. Spalletti said that against NEC Nijmegen, the long passes and Gonzalez's movement worked when the opponent came out to press. But the high balls to Kolo Muani will be met by Lazio's center-backs, whose physical duels Spalletti is wary of. If the passes to Gonzalez connect, Lazio may find it hard to keep pressing high. If they are cut out, Lazio can attack before Juventus's defense is set.
On the flanks, Zaccagni and Tavares against Juventus's right side is the key duel. Lazio have scored through their left-side combinations, including the opener against Genoa and the extra goal against Venezia. When Belahyane drops into the back line, Tavares joins the attack from a higher position. If Juventus play a 4-2-3-1, Gonzalez in front of Kalulu has to track back, and with a 3-4-2-1 the right wing-back deals with Tavares's advance. Kalulu has played all 720 minutes in eight competitive games this season. He started on Thursday too, so his defending and his legs will influence whether Lazio can keep attacking down the left.
That same flank is also Juventus's route to goal. If Juventus win the ball back after Tavares has gone up, Gonzalez can run into the space behind him. If Lazio's press works, Zaccagni and Tavares can receive the ball in advanced positions, but if it fails, the back line has to deal with Gonzalez's runs. Gattuso said Lazio must focus on marking in anticipation so that Juventus cannot counter. How high Lazio try to win the ball affects both sides' chances.
In the middle, Noslin's and Pratesi's runs meet Bremer's defending. Noslin set up two goals against AC Monza and got a defender sent off by taking a long Belahyane pass. Pratesi has scored three league goals by moving into the box without the ball. If Bremer steps forward to stop Noslin when Juventus lose the ball in attack, we also need to watch Pratesi's run into the space behind. Against US Sassuolo, Juventus let in runs after a defender stepped up, and late on they lost the ball in the attacking third and conceded a counter-attacking winner. If Lazio score first, Juventus will have more players forward, and this duel could come up more often.
Juventus's attack against Lazio centers on wide crosses and set pieces. Kolo Muani scored headers from crosses in consecutive games against Cagliari and Celta Vigo. Bremer and Gatti have also scored set-piece headers in the league this season, and Lazio failed to stop a near-post header from a corner against AC Monza. Even so, we can't predict Juventus goals from the number of crosses alone. If Lazio's center-backs win the first aerial ball, Juventus have to take the loose ball in the box or find another route. Mandas also made decisive saves against Venezia and AC Monza.
In the second-half substitutions, Juventus's squad depth and lack of rest both come into play. When behind or level, Spalletti has added a wide forward and a striker to put more bodies in the box. All of Lazio's goals conceded came in the second half, and Gattuso also pointed to lapses in concentration for 15 to 20 minutes during games. Without Gudmundsson and Cancellieri, Lazio will find it hard to rebuild their attack in that spell. But many of Juventus's substitutes also started against Celta Vigo. Even if they come on at the usual time, we can't be sure they will bring the same energy and goal threat.
The opening goal changes this game a lot. Lazio scored first in five of their six league games. If they lead again today, Juventus can add attackers to chase, and Lazio can look for a second on the break through runs from Noslin, Isaksen and Pratesi. If Juventus score first, Lazio face the rare situation this season of chasing the game, away against a top-half side. The further Tavares pushes up, the more space Juventus get for Gonzalez's runs and second-half attacking changes. What matters for both teams is where they hand the ball to the opponent when their own attack breaks down.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
In the first half, we rate SS Lazio as more likely to disrupt Juventus's build-up with their press and score first. A midfield without Locatelli and Thuram has to deal with the pressure from Taylor, Pratesi and Belahyane. If Juventus add attackers to chase the game, Lazio can look for a second with runs behind the defense. In the second half, we expect Juventus to close the gap with crosses and set pieces. Lazio have conceded all four of their goals this season in the second half, and today they are short of attacking substitutes. Juventus have their own reasons to doubt a late winner: their main substitutes started Thursday's away game, and Spalletti, who has directed the changes and positional switches, is not on the bench.
The market backs Juventus on the strength of their squad, home advantage and the points Lazio have collected against lower-table teams. Where we see it differently is Juventus's second-half attacking substitutions, which have contributed to the points they have won this season. The condition of the players who played away on Thursday and the manager watching from the stands make that weapon less certain. Lazio's high press can also create different transitions from the league games where Juventus held the ball for long spells and scored few.
Our predicted score is Juventus 2-2 SS Lazio. We see Lazio going ahead by winning the ball in the first half, and Juventus pushing more players forward and looking for one more goal through runs behind the defense. Juventus should pull two back from second-half crosses and set pieces, but their substitutions may carry less punch than usual, so we don't expect a comeback win. However, if Juventus beat the early press with long balls to Kolo Muani or Gonzalez's runs and score first, the scenario of Lazio leading and Juventus chasing no longer holds.
