[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard preview and analysis Kick-off: 18 October, 18:00 UTC
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard meet in round 9 of the Eredivisie at the Goffertstadion in Nijmegen at 18:00 UTC on 18 October. NEC have gone seven matches without a win and return to action just three days after their European fixture. Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten away in the league and will look to exploit the space behind the hosts when they push forward.
1. Match overview and team form
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8 league games. They have not won in their last 7 matches across the league and Europa League, and their 4 league home games this season have brought 2 draws and 2 defeats. They drew 1-1 with Levski Sofia in the Europa League on 16 October and face Fortuna Sittard around 71 hours later. A Europa League trip to Dinamo Zagreb follows next week, so some changes to the starting XI are possible.
Fortuna Sittard are seventh on 14 points and have recorded 3 wins and a draw in 4 league away games. They have had 8 days to rest since their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with FC Twente. Both sides have a goal difference of -1, but they have earned their points in different ways. NEC’s 2 league wins came against PEC Zwolle, currently 17th, and Willem II, currently 18th. Fortuna Sittard have lost only to AZ Alkmaar and Ajax this season. Both teams have played just 8 league matches, though, and the level of their opponents has also shaped Fortuna’s home and away records.
League standings this season Position and points: NEC Nijmegen 11th, 9 points / Fortuna Sittard 7th, 14 points Record: NEC Nijmegen 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses / Fortuna Sittard 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses Goals scored and conceded: NEC Nijmegen 13 scored, 14 conceded / Fortuna Sittard 14 scored, 15 conceded Relevant home and away records: NEC Nijmegen 2 draws and 2 losses in 4 home games / Fortuna Sittard 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 away games
NEC’s recent performances cannot be summed up by their winless run alone. They drew 1-1 with Go Ahead Eagles, Ajax and Levski Sofia, and showed attacking threat in spells. Against Ajax, they used the space left behind by the opposition’s attacks to launch transitions in the second half. Against Levski Sofia, their early pressing created chances. The goals in those 3 matches came from a corner header, a penalty and an opponent goalkeeper’s passing error. NEC have had spells of greater attacking intensity, but they still struggle to turn open-play chances into goals.
There have been signs of defensive improvement alongside some lingering risks. With Perr Schuurs back to form a back three, NEC have conceded just once in each of their last 3 matches. But in the closing stages against Ajax and Levski Sofia, they needed one-on-one saves from goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz. Schuurs is still building up his minutes, playing 72 and 75 minutes in those two games. Levski Sofia’s opener came after Schuurs lost his duel with the opposing forward. The lower goals-against tally does not yet mean the defence is fully settled.
Fortuna Sittard have made the most of limited chances in front of goal. According to ESPN on 17 October, their expected goals total across 8 league matches is 8.1, while they have scored 14 goals, 5 of them on fast counterattacks. Their expected goals against total of 19.2 is the highest in the league. However, 9.03 of that figure came in matches against AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, and Fortuna had a player sent off just 5 minutes into the AZ game. Their expected goals against across the other 6 matches is still around 10.2, which is not low. Any assessment that Fortuna have built their points haul through high finishing efficiency while giving up plenty of chances should take those match-by-match differences into account.
Team news will directly affect how the attack takes shape. NEC manager Dick Schreuder said Dušan Tadić appears to have a calf injury and does not expect him to play against Fortuna Sittard. Without Tadić, more of the responsibility for receiving the ball between the opposition’s midfield lines and switching the direction of attacks will fall to Chery. Local media expect Noe Lebreton to move into the attacking midfield role, with Dennis Geiger coming into the centre of midfield. Tobias Storm is recovering from flu symptoms and is expected to start on the bench rather than in the XI. Kévin Sylla is increasing his training load, but his availability and possible minutes remain uncertain.
Fortuna Sittard could have Mohammed Ihattaren, Rémy Vita and Anthony Descotte available. Yassin Oukili and Jasper Dahlhaus are out, while Iván Márquez has not featured this season. Without Dahlhaus, Fortuna have recently used a back four with Syb van Ottele in central defence. Their starting attack remains intact, but manager Danny Buijs has fewer options for bringing on an extra defender when his side are ahead.
Both meetings last season ended in 3-2 wins for Fortuna Sittard. Ihattaren was involved in 5 of Fortuna’s 6 goals through a goal or final pass. The coaches’ approaches and Ihattaren’s role are relevant again today. NEC’s defence and forward line have changed since then, though, and Kévin Sylla, who scored for Fortuna Sittard last season, now plays for NEC. Those past results cannot be carried over directly to this match.
2. Matchup analysis
NEC are likely to have more of the ball, with Fortuna Sittard waiting in a mid-block. NEC push their wing-backs forward from a back three at home. Fortuna have averaged 36.5% possession this season, the lowest in the league, and make few high regains in the opposition half. NEC’s defenders may have more time to play the ball forward without facing heavy pressure. The key battle comes next: how they can get the ball into the box in front of Fortuna’s midfield.
If Tadić is unavailable, Chery will have an even bigger role in that battle. If Fortuna’s Philipp Brittijn, Descotte and Eduard Michut limit the space where Chery can receive the ball, NEC may rely more heavily on crosses from the flanks. Pushing Lebreton forward offers another route. As he showed when winning a penalty against Ajax, he can make runs into the box. But starting higher up the pitch could leave him fewer chances to arrive late from deeper positions. How well either approach works will depend on whether Chery has enough time and space to find a teammate after receiving the ball.
Fortuna Sittard will look to attack when that link breaks down. Their main route is to win the ball in midfield and play a short pass into Rémy Vita to launch a transition. Away to Groningen, Vita received the ball near halfway, held off a defender and set up Ihattaren’s goal. At ADO Den Haag, Ihattaren turned the hosts’ shaky build-up into a goal. NEC made mistakes in possession during goals against at home to Feyenoord and Go Ahead Eagles this season. With the hosts likely to have the ball for longer, a turnover in midfield or at the back could send Vita running in behind.
Aerial duels are another challenge for NEC. Against Ajax, Tolu Arokodare beat Schuurs in the air to score with a header, and Levski Sofia’s forward also got past Schuurs to score the opener. Fortuna can draw on Vita’s strength in duels and Ihattaren’s crossing. Against FC Twente, Descotte headed in Ihattaren’s right-wing cross at the far post. If Storm returns to the starting XI or comes on later, that could change the duels Schuurs faces and the make-up of NEC’s defence in the second half.
At the other end, NEC’s corners could be important. Schuurs has scored twice from Chery corners this season. Fortuna conceded 3 goals from corners against Ajax and another from a corner situation against PSV. That gives NEC a route to chances through Chery’s delivery if they cannot break down Fortuna’s mid-block in open play. Fortuna’s use of a back four is also relevant to defending the box. If Schuurs is substituted after around 75 minutes, as he has been recently, NEC’s target on later corners will change.
The opening goal could shape both managers’ decisions after the break. Fortuna have scored first in 6 of their 8 league games this season and have managed one-goal leads by dropping deeper. If NEC fall behind, Schreuder can take off a defender and add another forward. They came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 away to Fortuna last season after making attacking changes, but kept pushing and conceded the winner in stoppage time. That creates a scenario where NEC could score in pursuit of an equaliser while Fortuna add another goal of their own.
If NEC score first, Fortuna will have to move away from their familiar approach. They have not shown enough this season to suggest they can reliably recover when forced to keep more of the ball and attack. But NEC scored in the second minute against Go Ahead Eagles and conceded an equaliser in the 10th. An early NEC goal would not erase the threat of Fortuna’s counterattacks. NEC need to avoid losing the ball in midfield straight after taking the lead and contain attacks from Vita and Ihattaren to change the game’s direction.
The difference in rest could matter most when the teams make changes in the second half. NEC used the same 10 starters against Ajax and Levski Sofia, and now face another match after a short turnaround. If Schuurs has limited minutes, the back three will change later in the game. If NEC are trailing, Schreuder could add another forward as well. Fortuna have had longer to rest, but Dahlhaus is out and van Ottele is already expected to start, leaving them with fewer defensive options off the bench. The number of days since the last game alone does not settle who will have the edge late on; the score and the actual substitutions will matter too.
3. Final verdict and prediction
We expect NEC to have more of the ball, but Fortuna Sittard’s counterattacks to have a greater impact on the result. If Tadić is out, more of the work to link NEC’s attack in front of a well-organised mid-block will fall to Chery. Fortuna can use Ihattaren and Vita when NEC lose possession in that build-up. If Schreuder adds attackers while chasing the game, the visitors will have more space to target behind the defence. NEC’s corners could give them a way back into the match, so we expect a close contest even if Fortuna take the lead.
The market leans towards NEC on the strength of last season’s results, their home advantage and Fortuna’s low expected goals total. We think NEC’s need to push forward and the possible changes to their defence around the 75th minute give Fortuna Sittard a more favourable set-up. There is no guarantee Fortuna can maintain their high scoring efficiency, but the teams’ styles explain the situations in which the visitors can launch counterattacks.
Our score prediction is 2-3 or 1-2 to Fortuna Sittard. The visitors could take the lead through an NEC turnover or an Ihattaren cross, then NEC could respond with a Chery corner and attacking substitutions in the second half. If NEC continue to push forward after scoring in pursuit of an equaliser, Fortuna could find the winner on the counter. An early Fortuna lead would leave more time for NEC to chase, making 2-3 the closer fit; a later first goal points more towards 1-2. NEC can still win if they score first from a corner in the first half and a defence featuring Storm keeps Vita quiet.
